Episode summary
US Economic Signals and the Latest on Iran Negotiations | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 32 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Robert Kaplan, Eddie Fishman, Bob Sloan, Meredith Whitney
Summary
The discussion opened with the Fed and the likely playbook for a new chair. A guest argued that the incoming chair should spend the first weeks building ties with staff, bank presidents, and supervisors, then use that input to accelerate bank deregulation, rethink the dot plot, and press the case that AI could be disinflationary. He also warned that data are backward-looking and often revised, so policymakers should stay close to what is happening on the ground.
The conversation then turned to inflation measurement and the effect of a K-shaped economy. The guest said the trimmed mean is useful but can be misled by oil shocks, and he argued the Fed should keep the 2% target because lower-income households are being squeezed by much higher effective inflation than headline measures suggest.
Later segments focused on economic warfare, globalization, and markets. A guest said the U.S. is already in economic war with Iran, that the Strait of Hormuz matters because oil is still priced globally, and that globalization is effectively defunct. Another guest said hedge funds now short themes rather than single names, while a final guest argued the consumer is under strain, auto credit is turning messy, and bank deregulation will mostly help firms buy back stock rather than drive dramatic growth.
Key takeaways
- A former Fed president said the next chair should build relationships inside the Fed fast and may de-emphasize the dot plot while pushing bank deregulation and an AI-disinflation view.
- The same guest argued the trimmed mean can lag oil shocks and said the Fed should keep the 2% inflation target because lower-income households face much higher effective inflation.
- A guest on economic warfare said the U.S. is in conflict with Iran and that the Strait of Hormuz still matters because global oil prices transmit higher costs to U.S. consumers and producers.
- One market participant said shorting is now more thematic and basket-based, reflecting the rise of ETFs and meme-stock behavior.
- A consumer-credit analyst said auto delinquencies are a key pressure point, with many households underwater on cars and banks likely to respond by raising reserves rather than fixing bad underwriting.
Notable quotes
“you want to get to know the staff particularly the economists you want to get you want to meet the heads of supervision there there's 22,000 people at the Fed”
“The trim mean is one of them. And let me just tell you for your audience what the trim mean is”
“it can it can mislead you and and here's why in in March of 2021 what was the trim mean reading about 1617”
“Yes, we are. And we're fighting economic war in kind of a new way”
“globalization is is defunct in my view”
How the episode opens
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Robert Kaplan joins us. Vice Chairman Goldman Sachs and of course all of his experience at the Dallas Fed. You have a beautiful sentence uh Dr.
Keppelin about uh the idea of we need to build relationships. So when you entered the Fed, what do you do? Do you have lunch with the chairman?
Is that how this is going to work with chairman uh wars? th those aren't the relationships I was referring to for for Kevin Worsh and for me when I went into the Fed and for anybody coming in from outside uh you want to get to know the staff particularly the economists you want to get you want to meet the heads of supervision there there's 22,000 people at the Fed you want to meet all the bank presidents uh you when I say relationships you're going want to start getting into a conversation with them about what issues they're seeing, where they're coming from, and you want to start assessing personnel. That that's all the things that the new chair will need to do in the first uh number of weeks and months.
What do you expect, Robert, from uh this incoming chairman, Kevin WH, based upon his testimony, based upon what we know and his past experience? What are you expecting? He's going to accelerate in my opinion and work closely with Mickey Bowman to accelerate move along uh bank deregulation particularly tailoring for smaller banks which which they're still in the process of trying to do.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- fed policy
- iran negotiations
- economic warfare
- us consumer
- market positioning
Companies and tickers mentioned
- GS
- Goldman Sachs
- S3 Partners
- Meredith Whitney Advisory Group
Watch the episode
Watch “US Economic Signals and the Latest on Iran Negotiations | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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