Episode summary
Instant Reaction: US Adds 165,000 Jobs, Topping All Forecasts | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 28 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Claudia Sahm, Constance Hunter, Kristina Campmany, Stephanie Roth
Summary
The October jobs report showed a stronger-than-expected labor market, with nonfarm payrolls rising 165,000 versus expectations for 70,000 and the unemployment rate slipping to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings also came in a bit firmer than expected, while labor-force participation improved slightly, reinforcing the idea that the economy remains on solid footing even as the hiring environment is still uneven.
The guests argued that the report points to a labor market with low hiring but also low firing, which makes it hard for workers to bargain for bigger pay gains even when unemployment is low. Claudia Sahm said the upside surprise was welcome but wanted to see several months of data before concluding there is a real acceleration. Constance Hunter said the report supports a view of underlying momentum, with cyclical jobs increasingly driving gains, but she tied the bigger economic picture to inflation, foreign policy, and election outcomes.
Stephanie Roth said the economy can still support buoyant nominal GDP, though she expects inflation to ease toward about 2.5% in 2027 as energy and tariff effects fade. She also said the Fed is still likely to cut in December and could move once more early next year before pausing, while Christina Campmany said markets remain wary of credit risk, AI-related exuberance, and overconcentration in a handful of themes.
Key takeaways
- The host said October payrolls rose 165,000, well above the 70,000 estimate, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%.
- Claudia Sahm said the labor market still looks like a low-hiring, low-firing environment, so she wants several more strong months before calling it an acceleration.
- Constance Hunter said cyclical jobs are increasingly dominating hiring, which suggests some underlying economic momentum beyond healthcare and government.
- Stephanie Roth expects inflation to ease to about 2.5% in 2027 as one-off energy and tariff effects roll off.
- Christina Campmany said her firm remains cautious on credit and does not think investors need to extend duration yet.
- Stephanie Roth said the Fed is still likely to cut in December and could move once more early next year before pausing.
Notable quotes
“the US economy adding 165,000 jobs in October, more than double what Wall Street was estimating at 70,000”
“the labor market has had this really uncomfortable curious balance of the the low hiring but the low firing”
“we have been headfaked by this labor market in terms of acceleration several times this year”
“we can see a surge in n in cyclical jobs and cyclical jobs are not are dominating the hiring”
“the economy's buoyant and it's not just AI”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news.
This is a breaking news update from Bloomberg. Instant reaction and analysis from our 3,000 journalists and analysts around the world. The October job numbers are crossing the Bloomberg terminal and they show improvement from September.
the US economy adding 165,000 jobs in October, more than double what Wall Street was estimating at 70,000 and much more than the 29,000 we saw in September. And we also saw the jobless rate uh now slipping to 4.1% versus estimates for 4.2%. It was at 4.2% the prior month.
Now, this jobs number, this gain of 165,000 in line with the highest estimates and above what most see as the so-called break even rate. That's the pace of job gains needed every month to keep the unemployment rate stable. Taking a look at the inflation component of this report, we are talking workers wages.
Average hourly earnings month overmonth up 4/10en of a percent about a tenth of a percent better than expected and much better than the tenth of a percent rise we saw in September. year-over-year average hourly earnings up a better than expected 3.1% versus the 3% we saw in September and the 2.9% uh estimate. The labor force participation rate uh also improving a bit 61.9% versus estimates for 61.8%.
The undermployment rate uh at 7.9% estimates were for 7.6%. Just want to point out today's report follows recent jobless claims data showing companies are holding on to workers. So, it appears this is still a low fire, but maybe a more higher environment.
Once again, the unemployment rate at 4.1% for the month of October. We added a much more than expected 165,000 jobs. That is a look at the October jobs report.
Back over to you guys.
She just like lights out.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us jobs report
- unemployment rate
- labor market strength
- nonfarm payrolls
- broad job gains
Companies and tickers mentioned
- IVZ
- New Century Advisors
- EIU
- Invesco
- Wolfe Research
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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