Episode summary
October Jobs and Tech Selloff | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 55 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Claudia Sahm, Constance Hunter, Kristina Campmany, Stephanie Roth, Max Kettner, Anthony Stephens, Tony Crescenzi
Summary
The show centered on the October US jobs report, which showed 165,000 payroll gains, a 4.1% unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings up 3.1% year over year. The guests largely agreed the labor market remains resilient, but not especially hot: hiring is holding up, firing is low, and wage gains are still not fast enough for many workers to outpace inflation. One economist argued the labor market’s new math may reflect slower labor-force growth from immigration shifts and aging, while another said the report confirms a “low fire, low hire” environment with some underlying economic momentum.
The conversation quickly broadened from labor to inflation, the consumer, and the Federal Reserve. Stephanie Roth and Tony Crescenzi both argued that inflation should ease next year as one-off energy and tariff effects roll off, while the guests still expected the Fed to keep tightening in December and possibly again in early 2027. Crescenzi said the bond market remains attractive in short-term paper and that the recent equity selloff may ultimately be a Goldilocks setup if growth slows without collapsing.
A second major thread was the sharp selloff in AI and semiconductors. Max Kettner said the market is trading narratives, not fundamentals, and Anthony Stephens described heavy retail buying in Asia even as professionals and hedge funds were forced out. The panel’s view was that AI remains a durable theme, but valuations, positioning, and event risk around major IPOs and geopolitics are driving the near-term volatility.
Key takeaways
- The October jobs report was stronger than expected, with 165,000 payroll gains and unemployment at 4.1%, reinforcing a still-healthy labor market.
- Claudia Sahm argued the labor market may be structurally settling around slower payroll growth because of weaker labor-force expansion and demographics.
- Stephanie Roth said inflation should cool in 2027 as energy and tariff effects fade, but she still expects the Fed to hike in December and again early next year.
- Max Kettner said the AI selloff is being driven by narrative and positioning more than fundamentals, and he thinks sentiment still needs to reset before a durable rally.
- Anthony Stephens said Asia’s retail investors kept buying semis into the plunge, while hedge funds and other professionals were forced to de-risk quickly.
- Tony Crescenzi said short-term fixed income still offers opportunities, while the broader market may be moving toward a Goldilocks backdrop of slower but positive growth.
Notable quotes
“the US economy adding 165,000 jobs in October, more than double what Wall Street was estimating at 70,000”
“the labor market has had this really uncomfortable curious balance of the the low hiring but the low firing”
“Hanging our hats on AI is not the way to go in terms of really like wanting to keep those those strong growth numbers”
“we've had an awful lot of multiple compression both in tech stocks and in US equities”
“the slide is coming from the US and no one has any control over uh US policy nor any visibility on US policy”
How the episode opens
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Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. on this important jobs report.
We begin our coverage as always and honored with Claudia some her work at the Federal Reserve uh system over the years definitive on the measurement of different recession statistics and of course she has been wonderful in talking about the American labor economy. You know Claudia, my favorite is the ECI wages and benefits index. We ballooned out of COVID to 5% year-over-year.
We've come back, but we haven't come back enough, but inflation's high. Are we getting ahead every month in our wages and benefits?
Not not in an inflation adjusted sense, particularly this year once. And that's really about inflation having picked back up again after uh the conflict in the Middle East began. And we've seen on the the wages side some slowing uh particularly in what goes home to people's paychecks.
I thought what was really notable out of the employment cost index last week was that unlike today's data average hourly earnings the ECI also brings in the cost employers pay for benefits including health insurance and those are rising pretty considerably the health insurance cost. So that's one where you know if employers have got to put those costs into the benefits they're not going to pass on in the wages and and you just don't see the you know the wage improvement. So I think given the backdrop of inflation has picked back up and wages just aren't rising like it is not a recipe of getting ahead here.
I would suggest Paul on this jobs moment that health care costs housing insurance costs y — Line up the list of costs — Y — Is just a huge story.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- jobs report
- ai trade
- tech selloff
- chip selloff
- treasury and bond rally
Companies and tickers mentioned
- IVZ
- New Century Advisors
- EIU
- Invesco
- Wolfe Research
- HSBC
- PIMCO
Watch the episode
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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