Episode summary
June Jobs Day | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 33 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Claudia Sahm, Katy Kaminski, Kristina Campmany, Margie Patel, Lia Taniguchi
Summary
The conversation centered on the June jobs report and the immediate market reaction: stocks jumped, bond yields fell, and the dollar weakened as the data came in softer than expected. The guest economists argued the report did not signal recession, but rather a labor market that is still solid while moving closer to the Fed’s maximum-employment goal. One guest said the main issue is the labor supply side, with immigration and participation affecting how payroll gains should be read.
The guests pushed back on overreacting to headline payrolls and revisions. One guest said revisions are normal and that the unemployment rate is a better starting point than payrolls, while another said the Fed will stay focused on inflation because the report does not show red flags in the labor market. Wage growth was described as not overheating, and one guest said inflation still has a persistent component, though much of the recent surge is tied to energy and tariffs.
On markets, one strategist said the weaker labor data reduced pressure on the Fed and reinforced a long-dollar trend that had already been building. Another portfolio manager said equities can still grind higher, but with rotations and more caution than a pure risk-on signal. A fixed-income manager argued U.S. rates look rich, Europe offers value, and credit spreads remain tight. The final guest said AI is likely to change the nature of work more than eliminate jobs outright.
Key takeaways
- The guest economists said the June jobs report was softer than expected but not recessionary, with the labor market still near the Fed’s employment goal.
- One guest argued payroll revisions are normal and that the unemployment rate matters more than the headline payroll number.
- The guests said wage growth is not overheating, and one guest saw inflation as still sticky by about half a percentage point in services.
- A strategist said the labor data supports a weaker dollar and reduces pressure on the Fed to focus only on inflation.
- A fixed-income guest said U.S. bonds look rich, Europe offers better value, and credit spreads are too tight for comfort.
- Lia Taniguchi said AI is more likely to reshape tasks and skills than produce a 50% job loss.
Notable quotes
“I think that we're just moving around with the labor force. We got to be really careful at a time like that when labor supply is so fluid”
“I think we could say the labor market's probably pretty close to where the Fed's maximum employment mandate is”
“I don't think markets should react much to this report”
“I think the big question here is we're all trying to figure out what what worsh's messaging is, what he's trying to accomplish”
“I think we'll probably see, you know, five 6% reduction in jobs because they've been replaced by AI”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 7 a.m.
Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. Joining us now in charge of cats and dogs here at uh Bloomberg Surveillance, New Century Advisor, Claudia Samp.
Claudia, I got to give you a victory lap here. 18 months ago, people were calling and citing your profound research on recession and you said no. What did the gloom crew get wrong?
But the gloom crew got wrong what was happening in the labor force, the supply of workers back when I said that those increased unemployment rate be careful with that. We've got a lot of immigration. We got a lot of workers flowing and some of that increase is good, not bad.
Like with the recession coming, I worry some of the, you know, really exuberant crew right now may be getting it wrong in the other direction because the labor force has not been growing as quickly. So the signals like with payroll gains, I think they're good. I don't want to undercut the good, but they're not great.
I think that we're just moving around with the labor force. We got to be really careful at a time like that when labor supply is so fluid.
Always respectful as the academic from Michigan would be, but nevertheless, the message is there on our newly minted chairman. Is he ignoring, as we saw in CRA yesterday, is he ignoring the employment mandate at the expense of total focus on supply side driven inflation at this moment. Having a a focus on inflation makes a lot of sense. It is the it is the problem.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- june jobs report
- labor market
- hiring slowdown
- stock market upside surprise
- global debt
Companies and tickers mentioned
- IVZ
- New Century Advisors
- AlphaSimplex
- Invesco
- Allspring Global Investments
- Bullhorn
- Bloomberg
Watch the episode
Watch “June Jobs Day | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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