Episode summary
Market Rally and Warnings | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Alicia Levine, Ben Cook, Nisha Patel, Dan Ives
Summary
The discussion argued that trying to time out of equities has been the wrong move in a market that keeps rewarding exposure to the rally, especially when there is no recession looming. Alicia Levine said investors who sat out June and July risked missing a powerful rebound, and she framed the current backdrop as one where banks are doing well, the economy is stable, and AI-related capital spending is supporting both earnings and valuations. She said the S&P 500 could reach 8,000, with risk to the upside.
The same AI capex theme carried into industrials and energy. Ben Cook said data-center demand is becoming an energy bottleneck, with natural gas acting as a bridge fuel and midstream assets benefiting from the need to move gas to power-hungry AI infrastructure. He pointed to Exxon as a favored integrated oil name and said the sector is returning cash to shareholders.
In fixed income, Nisha Patel said munis have been pressured by record issuance and Treasury volatility, but fundamentals remain sound and tax-adjusted yields are attractive. Dan Ives said the latest Microsoft results reinforce that AI monetization is real and still early, and he argued the market is underestimating how far the hyperscaler and infrastructure cycle can run.
Key takeaways
- Alicia Levine said market timing has hurt returns and argued investors should stay invested because recession risk remains low.
- Levine said AI capex and strong bank profits support the rally, and she put an S&P 500 target at 8,000 with upside risk.
- Ben Cook said AI data-center demand is turning energy into a bottleneck, making natural gas and midstream assets attractive.
- Cook said Exxon is favored because its integrated model and cash returns fit a volatile commodity backdrop.
- Nisha Patel said muni issuance is on pace to break another record, but tax-adjusted yields and credit quality still look compelling.
- Dan Ives said Microsoft’s quarter showed AI monetization is real and described the earnings cycle as still early.
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 7 a.m.
Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. But and Alicia Lavine is far too young to remember this.
Your mother would throw at you a book called The Intelligent Investor. And one of the great themes of the intelligent investor is if you're not in the game, you don't get to win. And there's this whole modern disease of market timing where that if you're not in the game, you don't get to win.
She's the BNY. Can we just say Paul Jeffrey U Alicia Lavine
It's like the mathematics involved here folks is predigious Alicia what's the damage to people who aren't enjoying this bull market — So — Like permanent
It's not permanent but it you can't make up what you've lost one of the most important statistics is that the best month of the year always follows the worst month of the year. And so we show our clients in various ways. Like if you try to time the market, you're likely to miss that massive rally like we had yesterday because you were so fearful of what was going on from June, June, and July.
The favorites were underperforming. Well done.
The tech was over. I mean, essentially, we if you go back 30 years and you miss the best month of the year, but — You're underperformed by by 500 basis points. — I'll go to Capital Group out in Los Angeles who've done great studies on this. You got to be an American. We all know that. But you were weaned at Chicago, the land of FMA and French where you have to play.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- s&p market rally
- energy price outlook oil and gas
- municipal bond weakness
- bond market warnings
- spacex earnings
Companies and tickers mentioned
- BNY Wealth
- Parametric
- Yorkville & Ives
- SpaceX
Watch the episode
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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