Episode summary
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: August 5th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Alicia Levine, Ariana Salvatore, Andrew Hollenhorst
Summary
Stocks were extending a record rally as the conversation centered on whether the market’s biggest questions have already been answered. A guest from BNY Wealth argued that the S&P 500 can finish the year higher, with a 8,000 year-end target, because forward earnings growth is strong, the market has absorbed higher oil prices and yields, and hyperscaler spending appears to have a real return on investment. She said the next phase is likely to involve more stock selection, with leadership still coming from the hyperscalers even as the chip trade matures.
The discussion then shifted to politics and the economy ahead of November. A guest from Morgan Stanley said the macro backdrop looks benign, with disinflation continuing and consumption still around 2%, but affordability remains the key voter concern. She framed data-center and AI buildout as a growing political wedge issue because of construction disruption, water use, and electricity costs, and said this will likely create a regional split in where development gets approved.
A guest from Citi Research argued the labor market is not reaccelerating and that inflation is already close enough to target to justify a modestly restrictive Fed stance. He said higher long-end yields are mostly about real yields and deficits, not inflation fears, and expects softer labor data ahead, with payrolls around 115,000 and unemployment ticking up to 4.3%.
Key takeaways
- A guest from BNY Wealth said the S&P 500 can reach 8,000 by year-end because earnings growth is accelerating and hyperscaler spending is still producing returns.
- She expects more stock-picking from here, with hyperscalers likely to lead less by chips and more by fundamentals.
- A guest from Morgan Stanley said AI data-center buildout is becoming a political wedge issue because of neighborhood disruption, water use, and electricity bills.
- She said Democrats face a structurally difficult Senate map, with Michigan highlighting how narrow their path remains.
- A guest from Citi Research said inflation is slowing toward 2% and that the Fed is already sufficiently restrictive, while higher long yields reflect real rates and deficits rather than inflation expectations.
Notable quotes
“we think the market ends higher at the end of the year. We're in print at 8,000”
“The answer is yes, it can. The second thing was, is there ROI on hyperscaler spending”
“We call it a benign macro backdrop. That's not the only thing that matters to voters”
“We know AI is unpopular. We know specifically among younger voters, so 18 to 29, something like 60% are worried about job displacement”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Pharaoh along with Lisa Abramitz and Amarie Hordern.
Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg television weekday mornings from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern.
Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg terminal and the Bloomberg Business app, we begin this hour with stocks adding to the record-breaking rally. Alicia Lavine of BNY WA recently raising her year-end target for the S&P to 8K.
Earnings took over from macro and driving markets. The capex cycle continues to support the economy and industrial sectors as hyperscaler spending is powering earnings of 20% of the S&P. Alicia joins us now for more.
Alicia, good morning.
Good morning. What a massive run we've seen in just a few days on tech. It's phenomenal. What are you telling clients?
It's phenomenal. Look, we we think the market ends higher at the end of the year. We're in print at 8,000.
I think it's probably moving higher. The forward earnings growth rate right here of the S&P is actually 30%. So that the multiples come down even now.
Um it's you know the market sort of tread water about around that you know 7500 range since miday kind of stuck there as the market rotated and we've as you talked about we've had these clearing events there are major questions hanging over this market the first of which is the war restarted oil prices are higher yields are higher can the market rally if the tenure is over 4.5% which was really the bogey in this entire cycle. The answer is yes, it can.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us public policy
- economic outlook
- market outlook
- investment strategy
- world markets
Companies and tickers mentioned
- MS
- C
- BNY Wealth
- Morgan Stanley
- Citi Research
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Surveillance TV: August 5th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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