Episode summary
Powell Probe Stirs GOP Concern, Threat to Stop Trump Nominee
Summary
Richard Portes argued that the White House’s pressure campaign against Jerome Powell is not just a personal attack on the Fed chair but an assault on Federal Reserve independence itself. He said the effort to influence monetary policy through political pressure is “quite different” from a normal debate over the Fed’s mandate, and warned that if the president gets his way, trust and reputation will be damaged in ways that are hard to repair.
Portes said the consequences would extend beyond the United States, because Fed policy affects money markets globally. He also said the ECB’s public solidarity letter is unlikely to change Donald Trump’s behavior, since Trump “doesn’t care what the foreigners think,” but it could matter more for senators and for financial markets in New York.
He saw the Republican pushback in the Senate as more consequential than international criticism. If several GOP senators oppose moving forward on new Fed nominees until the legal dispute around Powell is resolved, Portes said that creates a real obstacle for Trump’s plan to reshape the central bank. He closed by contrasting the current fight with the UK’s experience, saying central bank independence after 1997 dramatically changed policy outcomes.
Key takeaways
- Richard Portes said the Trump-Powell fight is an attack on the Fed’s independence, not just on Powell personally.
- Portes warned that damaged trust and reputation around the Fed would be “very, very hard to repair.”
- He said the ECB’s solidarity letter is unlikely to move Trump, but it may influence senators and New York markets.
- Portes said Republican resistance in the Senate is more serious for Trump’s Fed plans than foreign criticism.
- He pointed to the Bank of England’s 1997 independence as evidence that central bank autonomy can materially change inflation outcomes.
Notable quotes
“This is a major, major attack, not just on a man of unparalleled integrity in his post, but also on the institution on the Fed itself”
“the president of the United States, through his minions, is seeking to take control of monetary policy”
“once reputation and trust are imperiled, are damaged. They're very, very hard to repair”
“He doesn't care what the foreigners think. That's clear”
“Absolutely. And that will that really is a cause for concern for Trump in terms of nominating a new chair”
How the episode opens
This is a major, major attack, not just on a man of unparalleled integrity in his post, but also on the institution on the Fed itself and the independence of the Fed is. Many people would say, oh, you know, let's not stress this too much. I mean, maybe the Fed is too independent.
We really ought to rethink the mandate, so on and so forth. Yes. Yes.
It's worth having a reflection on all that. But but this is something quite different. This is where the president of the United States, through his minions, is seeking to take control of monetary policy.
And that whatever you think about what the Fed has done might do in future pressures, that is unacceptable. The key question for me, Professor Ford, is, is, okay, we're here and based on what we've seen the last X number of years with President Trump, he may get his way, etc. Is it repairable as you study across your exceptional career?
Is your study that the system and the American system can repair, hurt and harm by one person? I think that is it's a very, very good question because it goes to the heart of what we mean by trust, by reputation, and how those qualities can be squandered. And once reputation and trust are imperiled, are damaged.
They're very, very hard to repair. So if the president were to have his way, then down the road, you would see, I think, a real deterioration in the in the way that monetary policy is run in the United States. And that has implications for us over here for outside the United States because of the effects of Fed policy on money markets throughout the world.
Now, Professor, I was looking at this unprecedented letter from from the ECB, and I just want to read a portion of it.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- fed independence
- trump fed nominees
- republican opposition
- justice department investigation
- financial markets impact
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Bridgewater Associates
- Axios
Watch the episode
Watch “Powell Probe Stirs GOP Concern, Threat to Stop Trump Nominee” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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