Episode summary
Trump Vows 25% Tariff on Countries Doing Business With Iran
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · Guests: Leslie Vinjamuri
Summary
Leslie Vinjamuri says Trump’s early-2026 foreign policy looks less like restraint and more like disruption, with the administration moving quickly on Venezuela, Greenland and now Iran. She argues the White House is testing territorial pressure, sanctions and the threat of force in ways that are unsettling allies and challenging long-standing norms, especially the post-1945 principle against using force to alter borders.
On Iran, Vinjamuri says the proposed 25% tariff on any country doing business with Tehran is mainly an escalation of secondary sanctions rather than an immediate military step. She says that could hit countries such as China and others that have been treated more lightly, but she is skeptical that military action is the likely next move. For now, she expects Trump to keep pressing through sanctions while waiting to see whether internal unrest in Iran changes the situation.
She also says Greenland is a live flashpoint because the administration appears willing to exploit local independence sentiment, even if that would strain U.S.-Europe relations. More broadly, she describes the U.S. as not autocratic, but a dysfunctional democracy led by someone with autocratic tendencies who is increasingly unconstrained by precedent.
Key takeaways
- Vinjamuri says Trump’s 25% Iran tariff is a form of secondary sanctioning that could hit China and other trading partners.
- She is skeptical that the Iran standoff moves quickly to military force, calling sanctions the more likely first step.
- Vinjamuri says the Greenland push is aimed at exploiting internal independence sentiment, not just overt territorial pressure.
- She describes the United States as a dysfunctional democracy with a leader who has autocratic tendencies and ignores precedent.
Notable quotes
“the president now saying he wants to impose 25% tariffs on any country doing business with Iran”
“Those 25%, you know, he's cracking down on on secondary siding, violation of sanctions, basically”
“The real question is whether there will be any use of military force”
“We don't live in an autocracy. We live in a, you know, very dysfunctional democracy”
“The most important norm that has guided the system at least since 1945, Article two, Chapter four of the U.N. Charter”
How the episode opens
I mean, it's it definitely feels like it's on the edge. The return early in the new year, I think was it was boy talk about taking off with speed the you know the capture of madura and quickly pivoting to making claims on Greenland and then, you know Iran of its own accord people on the streets and Trump contemplating what his options are. It really is extraordinary.
And that's even setting aside the domestic story. I you know, I think that, you know, international relations hasn't always been easy. It's been very difficult the last one year.
There's so many questions about the United States. But I think nobody could have predicted that this is going to become so much about preeminence in the Western Hemisphere, about pushing a territorial borders, whether it's through threats or actual use of force, taking leaders out. You know, we thought this would be a president who might be neo isolationist, who might be, you know, inclined towards restraint.
That is just not what we're seeing right now, with the major exception of, you know, China, U.S. policy towards China and Russia, exactly where we thought, you know, it might be much tougher, at least when it comes to China. And again, that's not what we've seen.
And Leslie, you throw into the mix now we're ratcheting things up against Iran, right, with the president now saying he wants to impose 25% tariffs on any country doing business with Iran. What are the the implications there as that country now sees its biggest anti-government protests in years and and killing of many civilians? Yeah, well, I mean, the Iran story is an extraordinary one, devastating for the presumably thousands of people who are at risk or have been targeted by the regime.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- tariffs
- iran
- venezuela
- china trade
- protests
Watch the episode
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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