Episode summary
Previewing Jackson Hole | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 26 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Richard Clarida, Katy Kaminski, Freya Beamish, Mitch Berlin
Summary
Jackson Hole is framed as a test of how much clarity the Fed chair should give markets on the path back to 2% inflation. Richard Clarida says the most useful thing would be some insight into the Kevin Warsh framework, especially the reaction function around incoming data, rather than broad “big picture” remarks. He argues that inflation is a monetary phenomenon over time, but also notes that the last five or six years have been unusual enough that the Fed needs to explain how it will respond if inflation stays above target.
Clarida and Freya Beamish both push back on the idea that a lack of dovish guidance automatically revives a “debasement trade.” Clarida says he is not in that trade because global factors are driving yields, while Beamish says the 10-year Treasury around 4.7% still does not fully price the new macro regime. She wants clearer signaling that the Fed will defend its mandate and warns that a stronger labor market plus procyclical fiscal policy could keep term premium elevated.
Katy Kaminski says markets are also finding inflation clues in commodities, especially sugar and wheat, with dollar weakness supporting precious metals and other dollar-priced goods. Mitch Berlin says M&A has stayed surprisingly strong, with about $2 trillion in U.S. deal value in six months, though private equity remains constrained by high borrowing costs and valuation gaps.
Key takeaways
- Clarida says investors want the Fed chair’s reaction function, not just broad themes, on how inflation gets back to 2%.
- Beamish thinks the 10-year near 4.7% still understates the new macro regime and could need higher term premium.
- Kaminski points to sugar, wheat and gold as places where dollar moves and supply shocks are feeding inflation expectations.
- Berlin says U.S. M&A is unusually resilient, with corporate dealmaking up 22% in volume and 54% in value in the first half of 2026.
- Berlin says private equity is still held back by the cost of capital and a gap between buyer and seller valuation expectations.
Notable quotes
“I'm certainly not in the debasement trade”
“there's about $2 trillion almost of deal value in the US alone, which is unprecedented”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts, radio, news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 7 a.m.
Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. Global Wall Street focus is on Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Fed chairman Walsh um kind of disappointed I would say the global markets were with some of his comments to date in terms of disclosure or lack thereof. Maybe a little bit of a opportunity to reset here or maybe not. Richard Clarity joins us.
He knows what's going on. He is the global economic adviser at PIMCO, former Federal Reserve vice chair uh joining us here. Uh Richard, thanks so much for joining us here.
If you were advising Fed Chair Walsh as it relates to today's speech, what would you tell him?
Well, thank you for having me uh on obviously the chairman's first uh speech at Jackson Hole in that capacity. Uh at the press conference uh recently, he said he might talk about some big picture uh questions. You know, we have five task forces, we have uh four big picture questions.
Uh but I would advise him also to at least spend some time giving uh the audience and giving markets the sense of the Kevin Worsh framework for thinking about how we're going to get inflation down to 2%. You know, he says uh inflation is a choice and I agree with him. Right now it is and has been above 2% for five years.
And so at least some insight into his framework for uh getting to price stability I think would be valuable.
Rich, I'm so glad you mentioned that line. inflation is a choice. What did Chairman Worsh mean when he said that?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- jackson hole
- market pricing
- bond market
- macro outlook
- m&a activity
Companies and tickers mentioned
- PIMCO
- AlphaSimplex
- TS Lombard
- EY
Watch the episode
Watch “Previewing Jackson Hole | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
More from Bloomberg Surveillance
-
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 12th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance -
Jensen Huang Ousted by Nvidia Board as CEO | Bloomberg Surveillance -
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 11th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance -
AI Stocks Rebound as Fed Hike Bets Return | Bloomberg Surveillance -
Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 10th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillance -
Stocks, Bonds Fall as CPI Data Fuel Fed-Hike Bets | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance, this episode and its artwork belong to Bloomberg. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
