Episode summary
SpaceX Debuts on then NASDAQ and Oil Moves | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 28 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Sarah Wolfe, Ed Hirs, Cam Harvey, Jake Schneider
Summary
Markets were framed through three overlapping themes: inflation, energy, and the new SpaceX listing. A guest from Morgan Stanley argued that AI is still inflationary in the near term because the buildout requires heavy capex and creates supply bottlenecks in GPUs, semiconductors, and related inputs, even if AI could become disinflationary later through productivity gains. She also said the Fed’s problem is less the new chair’s communication style than a broader loss of consensus on the FOMC, which could leave policy higher for longer.
On energy, a guest from the University of Houston said oil markets are tight, with Cushing storage near 25 million barrels and logistics around the Strait of Hormuz likely to keep prices elevated even if peace talks progress. He argued it could take about 3 months to clear the Strait and as long as 8 months to return to more normal market conditions, while U.S. producers are not benefiting from higher prices the way they could because of hedging and trading decisions.
The SpaceX discussion focused on valuation and investor behavior. A Duke professor said the deal resembles a classic late-stage IPO: the company is high-growth and expensive, but much of the explosive upside may already be behind it. A guest from Atlas Analytics closed with a defense of satellite-based macro research, saying real-time imagery can help forecast GDP and trade activity ahead of official releases.
Key takeaways
- The Morgan Stanley guest expects AI capex to be inflationary over the next 18 months before productivity gains can lower prices.
- The Morgan Stanley guest said the Fed may move toward higher-for-longer policy because growth is stronger and inflation is still elevated.
- The University of Houston guest said oil storage in Cushing is near 25 million barrels and that supply disruptions could keep prices high.
- The University of Houston guest said reopening the Strait of Hormuz could take 3 months to clear and up to 8 months to normalize flows.
- The Duke professor argued SpaceX’s retail buyers are entering at a rich valuation after most of the explosive growth has already occurred.
- The Atlas Analytics guest said satellite imagery can track ports, land use, and built environment changes to estimate GDP in real time.
Notable quotes
“The biggest theme that we're looking at is around multi-polar world. And I actually think that the SpaceX IPO fits right into this”
“we're seeing increasing supply shocks at the same time. And so there's these very fragile choke points that are causing prices to rise”
“over the next 18 months, it's really going to be inflation driven by the AI infrastructure capex story before we get those productivity gains”
“We're down to about 25 million barrels in in storage. For contrast, when it was 70 million barrels in storage and and over, the price went to zero”
“I, you know, can't argue with the CEOs of Exxon and and Chevron. That's a losing game”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 7 a.m.
Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. Paul and I have been looking this morning for uh moments to stop and do more traditional prosaic discussions of economics, finance, investment, of international invas uh relations.
We can do that with Sarah Wolf at Morgan Stanley. Thematic macro investing as well. Sarah, what's your theme into the rest of 2026?
The biggest theme that we're looking at is around multi-polar world. And I actually think that the SpaceX IPO fits right into this where we really are entering a new frontier of this globally fragmented economy um where we're seeing uh intense reshoring um diversification of supply chains and now we're entering new frontiers such as space where we're competing with the rest of the world on technological innovation and dominating the space atmosphere with satellites. So Sarah, in the context of a broader discussion of a uh of inflation, how does AI fit into that?
Is AI inflationary at this point?
Well, what we're seeing is that amid all this AIdriven demand, we're seeing increasing supply shocks at the same time. And so there's these very fragile choke points that are causing prices to rise for things like GPUs, semiconductors, right? Everything that's going into building out empowering AI.
The reality is though, all these things that go into these um into these AI models are also a lot of the same things that go into consumer products. So over the last four or five months, we've been seeing this AI story push up producer prices and start to bleed into consumer prices as well.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- inflation data
- energy prices
- strait of hormuz
- spacex debut
- satellite imagery macro forecasting
Companies and tickers mentioned
- MS
- Morgan Stanley
- SpaceX
- Atlas Analytics
Watch the episode
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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