Episode summary
The Equity Bull Case | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 31 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Brian Levitt, RaeAnne Mitrione, Brian Belski, Dan Ives, Atsi Sheth
Summary
The discussion centered on a bullish case for U.S. equities built on easier monetary policy, still-solid inflation trends, and broadening earnings strength. One guest argued that inflation expectations were already falling, the Federal Reserve is likely to stay on hold this year, and the next move could be a cut rather than a hike. He also said the recent inflation data and more neutral FOMC tone support the idea that disinflation remains intact despite oil and commodity noise.
A separate segment focused on portfolio construction as the market rotates beyond the dominant AI and mega-cap trade. A guest from a family office said clients are optimistic but increasingly attentive to froth in parts of the market, and described shifting toward small caps, emerging markets, and value while maintaining diversified portfolios. She said alternatives can rise to 20% to 30% for ultra-high-net-worth clients, and that fixed income remains centered on high-quality investment grade, munis, and selective private credit.
A final conversation argued that the current technology and credit boom still has room to run. The panelists said AI capex is drawing funding because investors believe the spending will translate into future productivity and cash flow, while cautioning that the market’s volatility and complex capital structures deserve close monitoring. The overall tone was that the bull market is broadening, not ending.
Key takeaways
- One guest said the Fed will likely stay on hold this year and that the next move could be a cut, not a hike.
- The market’s broadening earnings picture was described as a 15th consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth.
- A family-office guest said clients are rotating into small caps, emerging markets, and value rather than outright hedging.
- The family-office guest said alternatives can reach 20% to 30% of portfolios for the right ultra-high-net-worth clients.
- A credit analyst said hyperscaler debt is being funded because buyers believe AI capex will eventually generate the cash flow needed to repay it.
Notable quotes
“Our view was that the Federal Reserve was not going to raise interest rates and our view was that would be supportive of this broadening in markets”
“my view is that the Federal Reserve will be on hold this year. I think actually the next move would be a cut”
“we're moving into areas like small caps, emerging markets, shifting into value”
“They believe that this kind of capex which is billions moving to trillions will generate the kind of productivity and revenue needed to repay that debt”
How the episode opens
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Perfect time now to recalibrate. He wrote 400 pages June 29th. He's ripped it up. Change it. Invesco asked for a rewrite. How do you rewrite your midyear? Brian Levit, — I would change it all that significantly — After the inflation reports.
Yeah. I mean, our view was that inflation expectations were already falling. Our view was that the Federal Reserve was not going to raise interest rates and our view was that would be supportive of this broadening in markets that we've seen and and I don't see any need to change that.
In fact, the inflation reports were favorable to that view. Um, what we saw this week and a little bit of the chatter out of the FOMC was favorable to that view. At least sounding a little bit less hawkish this week.
Is a disinflation vector in place. To me, it is there. I don't know how long it's going to take, but — Yeah, I believe it is. I mean, look, you're going to have some disruption with regards to the Middle East, but I'm not setting monetary policy based on where the price of oil is going, based on where supply shocks are, goods prices are relatively contained, shelters coming down, wages aren't robust. So, to me, that's not an environment you want to raise interest rates.
Brian, we did hear from Fed Chairman Walsh over the past couple of days in front of the the House and the Senate here. Any takeaways for you here?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- fed pricing
- inflation
- earnings outlook
- tech bull case
- credit outlook
Companies and tickers mentioned
- IVZ
- MCO
- Invesco
- Callan Family Office
- Humilis Investment Strategies
- Yorkville Ives & Co.
- Moody's Ratings
Watch the episode
Watch “The Equity Bull Case | Bloomberg Surveillance” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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