Episode summary
Trump Warns Iran of New Strikes, Private Credit Concerns | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · 28 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr, Alexis Christoforous · Guests: Ziad Daoud, Leslie Vinjamuri, Michael Nierenberg, Kathy Bostjancic
Summary
The conversation centered on the market and geopolitical shock from fighting around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. A guest said the waterway carries a highly concentrated flow of oil, gas and related trade, and argued that because there is no real alternative route, even a temporary shutdown could create one of the largest oil shocks in recent history. The modeling discussed on air put a 20% loss of global oil supply at roughly an 80% jump in prices from about $60 a barrel to around $108, with a three-month closure pushing prices near $164.
The discussion then shifted from war intensity to war duration, with the host pressing for what the U.S. and its allies would do next. A guest said America’s partners were scrambling, that Europe was frustrated, and that Russia and China could benefit from U.S. distraction. The panel also questioned whether President Trump had a clear exit plan or was simply digging in.
Later, Michael Nierenberg argued that not all private credit is the same, but warned that retail distribution of illiquid credit products can trigger a run-like liquidation event. Kathy Bostjancic said the energy shock could cut second-quarter U.S. growth below 1%, lift gasoline toward $3.75 a gallon in the base case, and act like a tax on consumers and businesses.
Key takeaways
- A guest said a prolonged Strait of Hormuz shutdown could be one of the largest oil shocks in recent history because there is no easy alternative route.
- The oil model discussed on air put a 20% global supply loss at about $108 per barrel, with a three-month closure near $164.
- A guest said Europe’s allies were scrambling and that Russia and China could benefit from U.S. distraction.
- Michael Nierenberg said private credit is not uniformly bad, but illiquid retail exposure can create a run-on-the-bank dynamic.
- Kathy Bostjancic said the conflict could drag second-quarter U.S. growth below 1% and push gasoline to about $3.75 a gallon in her base case.
Notable quotes
“It transports oil and gas and energy from the Middle East to the rest of the world and the rest of the world sends almost everything else that the Middle East needs through that straight”
“I can't think of a larger oil shock in recent history. If this is not the largest, then it's one of the largest for sure”
“it's a tax on the consumer, right? It's tax on the economy”
“I don't think all private credit is negative to to be totally honest”
“we are on pace even for the first quarter to see real GDP growth overall 3% and if you look at that core 2%”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 7 a.m.
Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. Zia Doud is chief emerging market economist for Bloomberg Economics.
Think about an EM uh uh uh mission like what Anna Wong does for the United States. In his essay over the last 24 hours on $160 oil uh went around the world. Z, let's do first principles first.
The straight of Malaa 29% of seaborn trade or moose shockingly almost as much 26% of seaborn trade the Sis canal where te Lawrence was barely is there how large is the straight of hormuz do we understand the substantial trade that goes through there in oil
Uh it is large um and it's large and it's concentrated if you think about it what it what it what it transports It transports oil and gas and energy from the Middle East to the rest of the world and the rest of the world sends almost everything else that the Middle East needs through that straight. So it is a lot of trade that goes there. It's concentrated in a crucial commodity that is oil and gas.
And the other thing with the straight of Hormuz which is different than the Swiss canal. It's not just the size is there's no alternative. So most of the oil that's going from Saudi Arabia, from Iraq, from the UAE goes through Hormuz.
All the energy that goes from Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar goes through Hermus. It's a big shock. 20% of global oil supplies,
Right? — I can't think of a larger oil shock in recent history.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- iran conflict
- gulf geopolitics
- private credit
- pce inflation
- coercive diplomacy
Companies and tickers mentioned
- RITM
- Rithm Capital
- Nationwide
Watch the episode
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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