Episode summary
Iran War Escalates; Global Markets React | Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance
· · Hosts: Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo, Michael Barr · Guests: Alexis Crow, Mark Rowley, Jason Trennert, Alexis Christoforous
Summary
Alexis Crow argued that the Iran-related oil shock is not a normal geopolitical flare-up but the biggest disruption to the global energy system since 1979. She said higher oil prices will ripple through U.S. growth, AI-related investment, semiconductors, agriculture, and the consumer, even if markets initially treat the shock as something the Fed can look through. She expected the Fed to hold rates steady and focus on whether it signals future cuts, while noting the labor market still looks healthy beneath the headline payroll numbers.
Crow also said big U.S. tech companies are increasingly multinational, with 53.6% of tech revenue in the S&P 500 earned overseas, and she urged diversification into Europe and Asia. She added that Brexit has continued to weigh on the U.K. economy and that AI is pushing capital toward physical and technological assets in a way that may benefit investors but carry social costs.
Sir Mark Rowley described London policing as a high-trust model built on relationships, technology, and a relatively low homicide rate. He said the Met has disrupted more than 20 Iranian-directed plots in the U.K., is using facial recognition and data science to target dangerous offenders, and wants phone makers to make stolen devices unusable.
Jason Trennert said investors should stay invested but tilt toward the U.S. and away from energy-sensitive exposure. He argued earnings still give markets room to absorb higher costs, with U.S. large caps and tech still looking relatively attractive despite the war-driven correction.
Key takeaways
- Alexis Crow said the Iran shock is the biggest hit to the global energy system since 1979 and could flow into U.S. inflation, growth, and consumer spending.
- Alexis Crow said the Fed is likely to hold rates steady tomorrow, with markets focused on whether policymakers still hint at future cuts.
- Alexis Crow said 53.6% of tech revenue in the S&P 500 is earned overseas, so U.S. megacaps are not immune to slowing global growth.
- Sir Mark Rowley said the Met has disrupted more than 20 Iranian-directed plots and is using facial recognition and data science to remove dangerous offenders.
- Sir Mark Rowley said London wants phone makers to let users turn a stolen device into a brick to kill the resale market.
- Jason Trennert said investors should stay invested but lean toward U.S. equities and away from portfolios most exposed to higher energy prices.
Notable quotes
“this is not Russia Ukraine. This is the largest shock that we've had to the global energy system since 1979”
“we think about that growth in America right now is overwhelmingly tilted toward the investment spend in AI”
“we're certainly facing the impacts of that today. Um, and and Tom, it's interesting”
“the strategy is simply stay invested, but shuffle the deck a little bit, right”
How the episode opens
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With Price Waterhouse Coopers. Uh right now Cooper's in life, you know, we remember it as well. Alexis Crowe uh darkens the door this morning.
What does your shop say about the capitalization, the options of big tech? They feel like they're playing by their own rulebook because of their profitability, cuz they're young Turks out in San Francisco and all that. But what does PWC say about the bond issuance or the stock buyback?
I mean does it just continue?
Thanks so much Tom for having me. I think in in that realm credit conditions are pretty easy and what we hear from a lot of investors as it and developers is that these are top tier borrowers. So there's no concern about mounting piles of leverage.
How about mounting piles of $100 oil and the impact that has on the global economy? Is it a short-term blip? you guys aren't too concerned about it or are you reworking your models and thinking about GDP and inflation that kind of thing?
Paul, thanks so much. I mean, this is not Russia Ukraine. This is the largest shock that we've had to the global energy system since 1979. Yep. — At that time, as we know, oil doubled in value and we're headed that way again. Um, appreciate what uh the former gentleman said. I I would say that yes, effects of this will be localized, but in the United States, there are downstream impacts. So we think about that growth in America right now is overwhelmingly tilted toward the investment spend in AI.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- iran war escalation
- global markets reaction
- economic outlook
- investment strategy
- front page headlines
Companies and tickers mentioned
- PwC US
- Strategas Securities
- Bloomberg
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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