Episode summary
Trump is exercising his maximum optionality on Iran, says Richard Goldberg
CNBC Power Lunch
· · 5 min · Hosts: Brian Kelly, Kelly Evans · Guests: Richard Goldberg
Summary
Oil prices were down more than 7% and crude fell below $97 a barrel as markets reacted to signs that senior U.S. and Iranian officials are open to diplomacy, but the host argued that similar peace hopes have faded before. The conversation centered on whether the latest headlines point to a real opening or another temporary lull before renewed confrontation.
Richard Goldberg said President Trump is “exercising his maximum optionality,” keeping diplomacy alive while also positioning military forces in the region. He argued that the reported Qatari-Iranian talks do not appear to offer terms materially different from a summer memorandum of understanding, and suggested Trump would be unlikely to accept a simple repackaging of that deal.
Goldberg also dismissed talk of a nuclear strike as implausible, but said the U.S. may have new ways to target deeply buried facilities, including the site he called Pickax Mountain. He added that Iran’s economy appears under severe strain, citing comments that the regime may not be paying workers or soldiers and suggesting Tehran could be trying to hold out until after Election Day.
Key takeaways
- Goldberg said Trump is keeping both diplomacy and military pressure active at the same time, calling it “maximum optionality.”
- He argued the current Iran talks do not look meaningfully different from a summer memorandum of understanding.
- Goldberg said a nuclear weapon is not on the table, but conventional strikes on underground sites may be.
- He said Iran’s economy may be so strained that the government is not paying its people or soldiers.
- Goldberg suggested Tehran may be trying to wait out the U.S. political calendar until after November 3rd.
Notable quotes
“THERE IS AN OPEN QUESTION, AND THAT IS WHETHER OR NOT CENTRAL COMMAND, THE US MILITARY, HAS A NEW APPROACH TO UNDERGROUND FACILITIES”
How the episode opens
All right, welcome back. Let's talk energy because oil prices are down. Crude oil is down over 7%, dropping below $97 a barrel, again on the paper contract.
But that decline comes as senior american and even iranian officials signal they are open to a possible diplomatic solution. Secretary of state marco rubio says president trump prefers not to use military force against iran. But folks, you all know this.
We have seen this play out before. Oil falls on hopes for a peace deal, only for the momentum to fade as attacks resume. And as I have reported a lot, it is still unclear really who is in charge or speaking for iran.
So are today's headlines a sign of real progress or another head fake? Joining us now is Richard Goldberg, senior advisor for the foundation for defense of democracies. He previously was national security advisor in the first trump administration and helped craft some of the toughest sanctions imposed on iran.
Richard, you've been dealing with iran off and on for over a decade or longer. You know the country well. I know the leaders have changed for obvious reasons.
Where do we stand? Are you hopeful there is real chance of lasting peace? Or is iran just sending the same exact stipulations and conditions as it has every month for the last eight months?
Yeah, I mean, I think it's clear the president is sort of exercising his maximum optionality here. He's letting the qataris run wild with the diplomacy while you see a lot of forces moving into the region, clearly being prepared in position for a military action as well. I have yet to see anything out of the leaks of these qatari iranian negotiations that shows any terms that the iranians say they're agreeing to that are materially different than that summer memorandum of understanding.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- oil prices
- iran
- peace talks
- trump foreign policy
- geopolitical risk
Watch the episode
Watch “Trump is exercising his maximum optionality on Iran, says Richard Goldberg” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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