Episode summary
Amos Hochstein on Iran war latest: I've stopped understanding what the U.S. strategy is
Summary
Amos Hochstein argues that the latest escalation around Saudi Arabia, the Houthis, and Iran reflects both Iranian proxy warfare and a lack of clear U.S. deterrence. He says the Houthis have been able to advance farther than before because the U.S. did not react as it normally would have, even as attacks hit civilian targets and an American was killed. In his view, Iran is mainly focused on survival, while its regional proxies create pressure points across Iraq, Yemen, and the shipping lanes.
Hochstein says he has “stopped understanding” the U.S. strategy because Washington appears trapped among three imperfect choices: strike a bad deal, return to war, or keep pressure on Iran and wait for its economy to weaken. He thinks a military escalation would be a mistake, while a pure wait-and-see approach is not really a strategy because events continue to move against U.S. interests.
On the economics, he says shipping costs through the region are rising sharply, tankers are being hit, and the market price on the screen is detached from reality. His preferred outcome would be a negotiated settlement centered first on nuclear restrictions and second on freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Key takeaways
- Amos Hochstein says the Houthis’ gains reflect both Iranian backing and a U.S. failure to deter them early.
- He argues Washington has three bad options: a deal critics may hate, renewed war, or a long embargo-led wait for Iran to weaken.
- Hochstein says tanker attacks and higher shipping costs show the region is already in an active, underreported conflict.
- He wants any deal with Iran to start with nuclear restrictions and freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
- He says waiting for Iran’s collapse is a bad strategy unless the pressure is clearly aimed at a negotiated outcome.
Notable quotes
“I'VE STOPPED UNDERSTANDING WHAT OUR STRATEGY IS”
“THEY'RE ATTACKING CIVILIAN TARGETS IN SAUDI ARABIA, AN ALLY OF THE UNITED STATES, WHERE CIVILIANS STANDING IN AN AIRPORT TERMINAL”
“WE HAVE DONE NOTHING. WE'VE DONE ABSOLUTELY NOTHING”
“THERE ARE THREE CHOICES. ONE IS YOU MAKE A DEAL THAT YOU PROBABLY WILL”
“THAT'S WHAT I THINK THIS ECONOMIC PRESSURE”
How the episode opens
Saudi arabia and the the iran backed houthis exchanging attacks last night, resulting in a fire at a at an administrative building at aramco, one of the world's largest oil facilities. President trump says that he is weighing. Joining.
Joining the saudi coalition coalition against the houthis in yemen. And joining us right now to talk about it is TWG Global managing partner Amos Hochstein. He's a former white house senior adviser in the biden administration.
And amos, there's so much that we don't understand that's happening right now. I was hoping you could kind of walk us through I don't ever recall the houthis having this much success. Is have they gotten better at this, or are they now much more motivated and pushed by iran to do things that they would not have done in the past?
Well, so it's a combination of those things. One, iran is in a place where it's trying to we are in a dance with the iranians where we've put the embargo on, waiting for that to take some effect. The iranians don't want us to restart the kinetic war again and trying to bait us into some kind of deal or not.
I'm not quite clear what their strategy is except for survival at the moment. But in the meantime, they have proxies, and this is what they built the proxies all around the region for the there's a lot more activity right now in the militias, the shia militias in southern iraq, and obviously the houthis. I think the most surprising thing about the houthis and why they've had so much success is that as they were crossing a few weeks ago into saudi and taking over the bab el-mandeb strait, there was no u.s.
Reaction. The united states normally would have used its presence in the region to deter and to stop that advance.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- middle east conflict
- iran strategy
- houthis
- saudi arabia
- u.s. foreign policy
Companies and tickers mentioned
- TWG Global
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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