Episode summary
Expect rates to stay higher for much longer than anticipated: Atlas Merchant Capital CEO Bob Diamond
Summary
Bob Diamond argued that the U.S. economy remains strong, especially for middle-market companies, but that several headwinds are building beneath the surface. He said lighter regulation and a more pro-business climate are helping those firms, yet tariffs, immigration-related labor constraints, and higher energy prices are creating pressure that could keep rates elevated for longer than markets expect.
Diamond also said the current investment boom, especially around AI and data centers, is supporting income and demand even as it pushes up borrowing needs for both corporations and the U.S. government. He said Atlas Merchant Capital is still finding capital available for good investments in the United States, where markets are more liquid and diversified than in many other regions.
On the Middle East, Diamond said the region still offers major opportunity, even with conflict-related stress and some delays. He described conditions in places like the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and the GCC as more business as usual on the ground than headlines suggest, while acknowledging that security concerns and geopolitical risk are slowing some activity and could keep changing the pace of business development.
Key takeaways
- Diamond said tariffs, immigration pressures and high energy prices are likely to keep rates “higher for much longer” than expected.
- He said middle-market U.S. companies are benefiting from less regulation and a more pro-business, pro-innovation environment.
- Diamond argued that AI-related investment spending is still feeding income and supporting the economy, even as it drives borrowing needs.
- He said capital remains available in the U.S. for good investments because the market is liquid and diversified.
- On the GCC, Diamond said opportunity remains strong, but conflict in the region is delaying progress and weighing on activity.
Notable quotes
“WE'RE GOING TO HAVE SOMEWHAT HIGHER RATES FOR MUCH LONGER THAN I THINK WE HAD BEEN ANTICIPATING”
“THE MIDDLE MARKET FIRMS IN THE US ARE REALLY BENEFITING FROM KIND OF LESS REGULATION, MORE PRO-BUSINESS, MORE PRO-INNOVATION”
“EVERY SINGLE DOLLAR OF INVESTMENT SPENDING IS INCOME FOR AN INDIVIDUAL OR A COMPANY”
“WE HAVE A LOT OF PRESSURE ON BORROWING. SO BOTH CORPORATES THE AMOUNT OF BORROWING FOR DATA CENTERS, BUT ALSO, YOU KNOW, THE US GOVERNMENT”
“IT IS MUCH MORE BUSINESS AS USUAL THAN YOU WOULD THINK UNTIL YOU'RE THERE ON THE GROUND”
How the episode opens
Welcome back everybody. Joining us right now in the markets and much more is Bob Diamond. He is the ceo of Atlas Merchant Capital.
He's the chairman of hyper liquid strategies and former ceo of Barclays. And bob, thanks for coming in today. Becky, let's just start talking about kind of where the equity market is right now.
Some concerns about whether this ai build out, whether there's going to be enough capital, whether we can continue at this pace. And again, these are kind of things we think about. And then we don't a lot of back and forth.
Should this be a concern. What do you think.
You know the economy is still strong. And I kind of see it in Atlas Merchant Capital. We're very much middle market investors, middle market firms.
I think from my role at the us export-import bank, we see middle market companies again. And the truth is that the middle market firms in the us are really benefiting from kind of less regulation, more pro-business, more pro-innovation. And if you just sit and talk to the ceos in middle market companies, you'd feel really, really good.
But we know we have tariffs. We know that immigration is having a big impact on the job market, the job, you know, job applicants are kind of shrinking. And we know energy prices are high.
So we have a lot of headwinds. And I think in our view, what that means for kind of the the fed and the markets is that we're going to have somewhat higher rates for much longer than I think we had been anticipating. And that's going to have that's going to continue to have an impact.
That's kind of what we heard from ira robbins this morning.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- rates outlook
- economic outlook
- middle east finance
- market trends
- credit conditions
Companies and tickers mentioned
- BCS
- Atlas Merchant Capital
- Hyperliquid Strategies
- Barclays
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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