Episode summary
Former U.S. Ambassador to the EU: Putin believes he has the wind at his back in the Ukraine war
Summary
Anthony Gardner argued that Vladimir Putin is entering the peace-talks phase from a position of strength, believing he can extract major concessions while continuing to prosecute the war. Gardner said Ukraine has made gains recently, but not enough to change the basic reality that Russia still wants the entire Donbas, not just the current line of contact. He treated Zelenskyy’s openness to freezing the map as a realistic acknowledgment of battlefield limits, while doubting Russia would accept it.
Gardner said Putin’s strategy is increasingly to terrorize civilians, citing Russia’s air advantage, shortages of Patriot interceptors, and the difficulty of stopping jet-powered drones. He said the impact in Kyiv is now felt all day, not just at night, and that hospitals, schools, and civilians are being hit alongside energy infrastructure and military targets.
He was skeptical of the idea that pragmatism means accepting Putin’s terms. Gardner said Ukraine is the only country that has been invaded and the only one fighting for survival, and he pushed back on any suggestion that Kyiv is the side lacking realism. In his view, Russia keeps demanding “much, much, much more,” which leaves little room for a deal that would be fair to Ukraine.
Key takeaways
- Gardner said Ukraine has made gains recently, but Russia still appears unwilling to accept a ceasefire along the current line of contact.
- He argued Putin believes the way to win is by intensifying attacks on civilians, not by achieving rapid battlefield breakthroughs.
- Gardner said shortages of Patriot interceptors and the threat from jet-powered drones are making Kyiv harder to defend.
- He rejected the idea that Ukraine is being unrealistic, saying Ukraine is the only invaded country and is fighting for its survival.
- He said Putin thinks he can get “almost everything that he wants,” which makes a pragmatic settlement difficult.
Notable quotes
“THEY HAVE MADE GAINS. AND WHICH IS WHY PUTIN BELIEVES THAT THE ONLY WAY OF WINNING THIS WAR IS BY TERRORIZING CIVILIANS”
“HE THINKS HE CAN GET ALMOST EVERYTHING THAT HE WANTS. AND HE IS HE CAN'T BELIEVE HIS GOOD FORTUNE”
“THERE'S ONLY ONE COUNTRY THAT'S BEEN INVADED, NOT TWO. THERE'S ONE COUNTRY THAT'S FIGHTING FOR ITS SURVIVAL”
“PUTIN KEEPS ON HOLDING OUT FOR MUCH, MUCH, MUCH MORE”
How the episode opens
The app.
Russian president vladimir putin has agreed to us led peace talks with ukraine as soon as next month. Joining us now, Anthony Gardner, former u.s. Ambassador to the eu.
Mr. Ambassador it's good to see you this morning. And I was actually just just trying to figure out how much how many gains ukraine has really made in recent months in terms of retaking some territory, because I was struck by zelensky's offer for a cease fire, if it were, or even some type of talks, if you would keep the map where it is right now.
Is that a surprise to you that he said that? And does it have anything to do with gains that have been made recently? I'm surprised he would cede anything and not just stick to to the original idea that we were invaded and we're not giving up no matter what.
I don't think.
It's new, to be honest with you. I've heard him say that before and it reflects reality. Look, I spend a fair amount of time in ukraine and I, I believe I heard him say that, but I don't believe that the russians would be willing to accept that offer.
Until now, they've been very clear that what they want is the entire donbas, not just the line of contact. It is. It is now.
So I'd be quite surprised if russia is willing to negotiate on that basis.
Have there actually been some pretty good gains recently? I mean, is ukraine been turning the tide or is it possible to turn the tide in this war? — They have made gains, been well publicized. They have made gains. And which is why putin believes that the only way of winning this war is by terrorizing civilians.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- russia-ukraine war
- vladimir putin
- u.s.-led peace talks
- european diplomacy
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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