Episode summary
Former WH chief of staff Mick Mulvaney: This election is going to go 'the way it should'
Summary
The conversation centers on how the coming midterm elections could hinge less on ideology than on cost of living, polling error, and which party best reads the electorate. A guest argues prediction markets point to a stronger result for Democrats, with the House flipping and the Senate potentially breaking 50/50 or close to it. The host pushes on whether those market signals are really better than the polls, and the guest says the answer may depend on whether polling failures repeat in places like the New York City mayor’s race, Brazil, and other recent surprises.
Michigan becomes the key race in the discussion. The guest says it is the most interesting contest because it pits a very progressive Democrat against a relatively centrist Republican, making it a test of whether swing-state voters will back a left-leaning message. The guest and Natasha Sarin both argue that the result will also shape the future direction of the Democratic Party and the broader 2028 presidential field.
The discussion broadens into a larger argument about economic precarity. Sarin says voters are reacting not just to inflation but to a sense that one health shock, job loss, or AI disruption could push them over the edge. Mulvaney, by contrast, argues Donald Trump will dominate 2028 politics on both sides, even if he is not on the ballot, while Sarin hopes the next cycle is defined by issues beyond Trump.
Key takeaways
- The guest expects Democrats to have a strong midterm, with a possible House takeover and a Senate outcome around 50/50.
- Michigan is framed as the most revealing race because it tests whether swing-state voters will support a far-left Democrat or a center-right Republican.
- The host and guests say the election may expose whether prediction markets are more reliable than flawed polls.
- Natasha Sarin argues the economy is being driven by a broader crisis of affordability and precarity, not just headline inflation.
- Mulvaney says Donald Trump will dominate the 2028 cycle even if he is not on the ballot.
- Sarin hopes 2028 is defined by issues beyond Trump and sees Democrats aiming to retake the White House.
Notable quotes
“THE PREDICTION MARKETS ANTICIPATE THAT THIS IS GOING TO BE A GOOD ELECTION FOR DEMOCRATS, IN PART BECAUSE OF SOME OF THE COST OF LIVING ISSUES”
“THIS ELECTION IS GOING TO GO THE WAY IT SHOULD. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN? THAT MEANS THE DEMOCRATS PICK UP ENOUGH SEATS IN THE HOUSE TO TAKE CONTROL”
“MICHIGAN. TO ME, JOE IS THE MOST INTERESTING RACE THIS CYCLE. WHY? IT IS A SWING STATE WITH NO INCUMBENT”
How the episode opens
Now
Now, just a little more than a week away from the midterm elections. Joining us, Mick Mulvaney, former white house chief of staff and acting strategic advisors co-chair and former biden treasury official Natasha Sarin. She's a yale law school professor and co-founder of the budget lab.
I'd like I guess I'd like to know your thoughts on. I hate to call them predictions, natasha, but what do you think, house at least, or house and senate or just one or the other?
As an economist, I am so nervous making predictions because this morning what I'm feeling is the prediction markets, which indicate that we are on the verge of some sort of blue wave, are sort of showing that there, you know, when you have an 80% chance that you're going to see bolsonaro in brazil, there's still a 20% chance that lula wins. And so I'm a little nervous to be out there trying to suggest what we're likely to see. I will tell you, the prediction markets anticipate that this is going to be a good election for democrats, in part because of some of the cost of living issues you all were just talking about.
The economy is front of mind for voters, and they're frustrated that a president who promised lower prices on day one hasn't quite delivered on that.
Right? It was bad when he came in and it hasn't gotten any better. And it's got another. Well, it's up another 3.5%. — Yeah. The tariffs, the war. They're adding hundreds of dollars to gas prices. These things are getting worse for consumers. And they're feeling.
And it was bad to start with. That's what I'm saying is that prices were up 25% in the past four years.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- midterm elections
- election races
- state of the economy
- biden administration
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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