Episode summary
I don't see roaring 1920s comparison in the stock market: Bill Ackman
Summary
Bill Ackman pushed back on the idea that today’s stock market resembles the Roaring 1920s. He argued that earnings expectations have risen this year and that public-market valuations still look reasonable relative to the growth embedded in the market, even if some parts of private markets look more frothy. He said the clearest signs of excess are in private venture, one-day options, leveraged betting, and sports wagering rather than in large public equities.
On AI, Ackman said the United States is in a global race for superintelligence and cannot afford to fall behind. He dismissed calls for a pause on AI as politically understandable but practically unrealistic, comparing the debate to trying to slow electricity adoption. In his view, data-center buildouts and AI infrastructure are likely to create jobs and should not be treated as a reason to slow the sector.
He also weighed in on politics, saying the current Democratic Party environment punishes candidates who step outside the line. Ackman said he expects the House to go Democratic and is hoping the Senate remains Republican, while expressing skepticism that polling alone is capturing the race accurately.
Key takeaways
- Ackman said he does not see a Roaring 1920s-style bubble in public stocks because earnings expectations are rising and valuations remain reasonable.
- He sees more bubble-like behavior in private venture markets, especially around FOMO, one-day options, and leveraged sports betting.
- Ackman argued that the U.S. cannot slow AI development because the country must remain first in the global race for superintelligence.
- He said states would welcome AI-related jobs and data-center investment, so political backlash is unlikely to stop the buildout.
- On politics, Ackman expects the House to flip Democratic and hopes the Senate stays Republican, while doubting that polls are fully reliable.
Notable quotes
“I DON'T I DON'T SEE A ROARING 20S IN THE STOCK MARKET. YOU KNOW, IF ANYTHING, THIS YEAR EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS HAVE GONE UP MEANINGFULLY”
“I THINK IN PRIVATE MARKETS, I WOULD SAY YOU'RE SEEING A LITTLE BIT MORE WHAT BUBBLE LIKE ACTIVITY, PARTICULARLY IN THE KIND OF FOMO, YOU KNOW, PRIVATE VENTURE SPACE”
“IT'S A GLOBAL RACE FOR SUPERINTELLIGENCE. WE DON'T WANT TO GET THERE SECOND, RIGHT. THAT'S THAT'S EXISTENTIAL TO THE UNITED STATES”
“I JUST THINK WE I THINK WE HAVE NO CHOICE. IT'S LIKE, YOU KNOW, SAYING WE WANT TO SLOW DOWN THE PACE OF ELECTRICITY PENETRATION INTO AMERICA, RIGHT”
“I THINK THE LIKELIHOOD IS THE HOUSE GOES. AND I'M SORT OF HOPING THAT THE SENATE STAYS”
How the episode opens
Have the lowest cost, lowest price. So they have some kind of fundamental competitive advantages. And if agentic commerce accelerates commerce, that's going to be good for them.
Bill, can I ask you a broader markets question? Sure. Kind of plays into some of your investments to Elliott Investment Management had its october letter to investors.
That was out this morning or it was out this for in october. The wall street journal has a story in this morning's paper looking at it. They're saying they're comparing this time to the roaring 20s that led to the great depression and worried about several things that they listed.
One is debt finance, capital spending that's out there, circular ai and infrastructure deals. And then they laid out this growing pushback and backlash towards ai and how we're seeing that play out. Do you share those concerns or do you think that there's a different way?
I don't I don't see a roaring 20s in the stock market. You know, if anything, this year earnings expectations have gone up meaningfully. And the multiple is is actually reasonably low relative to the growth inherent in the market.
So I'm not seeing that sort of bubble like activity in markets. I think in private markets, I would say you're seeing a little bit more what bubble like activity, particularly in the kind of fomo, you know, private venture space. There is some, but a lot of it is justified.
I met with the Ramp team, unbelievably impressive company. If I were American Express, I would be concerned. But they're building basically a financial operating system for every company in the world.
Super impressive team growing at this massive rate. You know, I think they justify the valuations that they're. So I'm not seeing anything that looks like the 1920s where I worry again, your point on the short term stuff, I think is bad one day options.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- roaring 1920s comparison
- midterm elections
- market outlook
- ai backlash
- tech trade
Companies and tickers mentioned
- AXP
- Pershing Square
- Elliott Investment Management
- American Express
- Ramp
Watch the episode
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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