Episode summary
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour on the midterms, future of regulation and insider trading concerns
Summary
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said the election showed prediction markets can be a powerful information tool: he pointed to Kalshi’s 98% accuracy rate and more than $2.5 billion in trading volume, and argued the market signaled a Democratic “blue tsunami” well before Election Day. He said the markets were already pricing a blue wave months earlier, and that the value of prediction markets is that they aggregate research and incentives from a much broader set of participants than traditional political commentators or a handful of polls.
Mansour argued that prediction markets can be manipulated only briefly and at a cost, using examples from a Los Angeles mayoral race and other political rumors that quickly snapped back. He said transparent markets expose attempts to distort prices and can flag suspicious activity, making them more robust than campaign ads or rumors. In his view, the real economic value of the market is not perfect immunity from manipulation, but a faster and more rigorous filter of information.
Looking ahead, Mansour said Kalshi has always taken a “regulatory first” approach and has worked across both parties since 2018. He said he supports sensible guardrails, more CFTC commissioners, and a strong anti-insider-trading stance, including for prediction markets and public officials. He argued that insider trading undermines the very idea of free markets, and said Kalshi has been aggressive about policing it no matter where it comes from.
Key takeaways
- Mansour said Kalshi’s election markets reached a 98% accuracy rate and more than $2.5 billion in volume, reinforcing the case for prediction markets as a signal source.
- He argued the market had already been pointing to a Democratic “blue tsunami” months before the election, even when political insiders doubted it.
- Mansour said manipulation attempts are usually temporary and transparent, citing a Los Angeles mayoral race where a large trade moved the price only for seconds.
- He said Kalshi wants “regulatory first” rules and expects sensible guardrails, not a hands-off regime, regardless of which party controls Congress.
- Mansour said he strongly opposes insider trading in prediction markets because it makes competition fake and undermines free markets.
Notable quotes
“PREDICTION MARKETS WERE RIGHT ON THE MONEY. THIS ELECTION, CALCIUM MARKETS HAD A 98% ACCURACY RATE”
“THE MARKETS WERE SAYING THERE'S OVER 50% CHANCE OF A BLUE TSUNAMI BACK IN APRIL, APRIL, APRIL”
“THERE'S NO QUESTION ABOUT IT. IT'S LIKE ASKING, DOES THE DOES APPLE STOCK REACT TO THE QUARTERLY EARNINGS OF APPLE”
“YOU HAVE SUCH A BIG INCENTIVE TO GO OUT AND DO RESEARCH ON THE TOPIC. AND THEN, YOU KNOW, YOU CAN MAKE MONEY OFF OF THAT RESEARCH”
“THEY'RE GIVING EVERYBODY A VOICE AND AN ABILITY TO GET SOME STAKE IN THE OUTCOME. BUT AT THE SAME TIME I'M PRO-REGULATION”
How the episode opens
Think it was like most of the day was on something called corky. Yeah. Something called.
And not just the past week even leading up to it, but prediction markets were right on the money. This election, calcium markets had a 98% accuracy rate, as some people might say, unfortunately. But as trading volume exceeded $2.5 billion.
Joining us now, tarek mansoor, course co-founder and ceo. We should mention that cnbc has a commercial relationship with corky that includes customer acquisition and minority investment. And we're friends.
You've been on before and you walked in. You were scared of me because I said, I'm not. I'm not going to shoot the messenger.
I'm not going to kill you. But. Last week and leading up to the election, I kept saying, either this is the end of the prediction markets, or they're going to be completely right.
And you were I mean, I don't know about polls. I don't know how much polls go into the final. You know, the way people bet or whatever it is.
But everything you were very early on this and even your power index, which you were on, I think six months ago, showing which party is going to going to be in power that was favoring republicans. How long ago was that? Was that.
Six months ago? And then it really. — Told me to watch that, which I did that totally flipped three months ago, big time, and then got worse and worse and worse leading into it. Andrew. The most incredible thing. Yeah. I'll tell you one more thing as I build up, tarek was I saw a person come on and say the first thing, ari fleischer, first thing that we're going to know is one county in indiana, north of indianapolis.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- midterm election results
- blue tsunami
- prediction markets regulation
- insider trading concerns
- company valuation
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Kalshi
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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