Episode summary
ETF Trades: What Has and Hasn’t Worked in 2025
ETF Prime
· · Hosts: Nate Geraci, Simeon Hyman · Guests: Aniket Ullal, Cinthia Murphy
Summary
The episode focused on two themes in the ETF market: which trades have worked in 2025, and which newly launched products are trying to capitalize on those trends. The host and a guest discussed a wave of launches aimed at retail investors, including Roundhill’s revived meme stock ETF, Defiance’s Trillion Dollar Club Index ETF, and ARK’s new Diet Q4 Buffer ETF. The conversation emphasized that many of these products are designed less for broad diversification than for concentrated, tactical bets on volatility, megacap stocks, or downside protection.
The guest argued that the biggest winners this year have been store-of-value and non-U.S. exposures, especially gold, Bitcoin, European equities, and defense-related ETFs tied to the “one big beautiful bill.” By contrast, healthcare and energy have struggled, with Medicaid reform, weak crude forecasts, and the slow payoff from AI data-center demand weighing on the sectors. The guest also said small caps merit close attention after outperforming large caps over the last three months.
The discussion closed with a look ahead at government shutdown risk and the possibility that small caps or other beaten-down areas could keep working if macro conditions improve. Along the way, the guest stressed that innovation in ETFs is often about price as much as strategy, pointing to cheaper buffer funds and the continued push by global asset managers into the U.S. market.
Key takeaways
- The guest said gold and Bitcoin have been the clearest dollar-diversification winners in 2025, with gold ETFs taking in about $43 billion and Bitcoin ETFs about $45 billion.
- The guest argued that Europe has worked because financials and industrials dominate the region and the weaker dollar has boosted U.S. investors’ returns.
- Defense ETFs tied to the tax-and-spending bill have been standouts, with some global defense funds up roughly 80% to 85% in dollar terms.
- Healthcare has lagged because Medicaid reform pressures managed-care names, though the guest said CFRA recently upgraded the sector to market weight.
- Energy remains weak because crude-oil forecasts are still bearish and AI data-center demand has not yet fully translated into broad energy-stock gains.
- The guest said small caps deserve attention because they have outperformed large caps over the last three months and remain cheaper than mega-cap growth stocks.
Notable quotes
“I think it's interesting that we've tried this before. It didn't work and here we are again”
“There's always a market for for diet versions of things. Uh it may not be you and me, but uh it's from the asset manager perspective, they just broaden their reach”
“I think what's smart here is exactly that you're reaching a new audience for this”
“the more you spend, the less you keep. So I think to me the the simple takeaway here is that sometimes we get so consumed with the idea of what's innovation in product development”
“the thing we're watching more slowly right now is the government shutdown because, you know, we have a policy group within within CFR that watches this”
How the episode opens
There's always a market for for diet versions of things. Uh it may not be you and me, but uh it's from the asset manager perspective, they just broaden their reach. So, all right.
Joining me will be Anakutal, head of ETF research and analytics at CFRA, who's one of the world's leading independent investment research firms. And Anakin is someone who covers the ETF space as well and as closely as anyone anywhere. He's always one of my favorite people to visit with.
We have a fun topic for you this week. So, we're going to look at ETF trades that have and have not worked so far this year. Uh Anakit has provided me with several categories of ETF trades that have caught his attention, whether for good or bad reasons, and we're going to walk through those in pretty good detail.
Uh Anakit will explain what's gone right and what's gone wrong here. And then we'll also spend a few minutes looking ahead to the remainder of the year and even into 2026. Anakit will offer up an ETF category or two he's keeping an eye on moving forward.
Now to start this week, I'll be joined by Cynthia Murphy, investment strategist at Vetify. And longtime listeners know that one of my favorite things to do on here is talk about new ETF launches. And I will tell you, there have been a boatload recently.
We've seen a record pace of ETF launches. It seems like uh every month is setting another record. But I went through the launches over about the past three or four weeks and I have picked out six that I want to get Cynthia's hot take on.
So that should be fun as well. As always, questions or comments, you can find me on xnatejery or you can go to etfrpime.com.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- etf trades
- performance 2025
- etf launches
- meme stock etf
- buffer strategy etf
Companies and tickers mentioned
- CFRA
- VettaFi
- Roundhill
- Defiance
- ARK Invest
Watch the episode
Watch “ETF Trades: What Has and Hasn’t Worked in 2025” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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ETF Prime, this episode and its artwork belong to Nate Geraci. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
