Episode summary
He Built the Fund He'd Hold 30 Years | Eric Crittenden on What Investors Pick When Labels Come Off
Excess Returns
· · 1 hr 7 min · Hosts: Matt Zeigler, Jason Buck · Guests: Eric Crittenden
Summary
Eric Crittenden argues that trend following works best when it is hardest to hold: after regime shifts, when markets are moving fast, and when many investors are being whipsawed out of the trade. He says the drawdown in early 2025 came from abrupt reversals in a pro-growth portfolio, but the same environment later became one of the strongest stretches he has seen, because new trends emerged quickly and systematically. His case for the strategy is not that it predicts the future, but that it provides liquidity when hedgers need it most and can capture a risk premium from that supply-demand imbalance.
He also emphasizes process over cleverness. Eric prefers simple, durable systems with short-, medium-, and long-term trend signals rather than frequent tinkering or elaborate filters. He says the main portfolio changes at Standpoint were not to the trend system itself but to remove markets like nickel for structural reasons and to drop some short-term fixed-income exposures that required too much leverage for too little benefit.
On portfolio construction, Eric says trend is most powerful as part of a broader allocation alongside equities. He argues that combining global stocks with managed futures improves the overall path of returns, because trend tends to diversify equity risk even if it can look unattractive on its own. The hard part is behavioral: investors want diversification, but they often sell it exactly when they need it most.
Key takeaways
- Eric Crittenden says the best trend opportunities often appear when investors feel psychologically and socially under pressure.
- He argues trend following earns a risk premium by providing liquidity to hedgers in copper, fixed income, currencies, and other futures markets.
- Eric says the biggest mistake is tinkering too much; Standpoint keeps short-, medium-, and long-term trend systems stable across decades.
- He removed nickel from the portfolio for structural reasons and cut some short-term fixed-income markets because leverage was too high for too little value.
- Eric thinks trend works best inside a broader stock-plus-trend portfolio, where it improves the total return path even if it is hard to hold standalone.
Notable quotes
“The best opportunities present themselves when you were psychologically and socially under pressure”
“So, if you're using too many filters um that haven't seen these kind of new environments, you run the risk of just getting left out or getting whipsawed”
“I trust all three of my systems, the short-term, the medium-term, and the long term”
“I don't want any more model risk than I have to take”
“it's hard to just sit on your hands and do nothing. But that's simply the right answer 85% of the time in this business”
How the episode opens
The best opportunities present themselves when you were psychologically and socially under pressure. That's a reoccurring theme over my career for sure. There are regime shifts that just were very counterintuitive.
Um, and they happen fast and there's really big moves in the first couple innings of those. So, if you're using too many filters um that haven't seen these kind of new environments, you run the risk of just getting left out or getting whipsawed from your choice of which system to bet on. Not very many people want to be on the other side of that trade, right?
So, if and we don't have a vested interest. So, to get us to come in and and provide that liquidity to you, there has to be some sort of implied risk premia that we're going to collect. For some people, myself included, it's hard to just sit on your hands and do nothing.
But that's simply the right answer 85% of the time in this business. You're watching Excess Returns, the channel that makes complex investing ideas simple enough to actually use where better questions lead to better decisions. I'm Matt Ziggler, aka the Fred Wesley of Excess Returns.
Why? Because I've got the JBs with me today. Jason But from Mutiny Funds.
Are you ready to pass the piece? I don't even know what to do with your intros every time. It's all right if nobody gets that.
We're doing this to the death. That's all I know because we have Eric Kittinden here. He's back.
Eric, thank you so much for coming back on Access Returns.
Thanks a lot for having me on. Appreciate it. — I'm here to troll Jason. You're here to do that with me by answering questions about stuff that I mean, let's be honest.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- managed futures
- trend following
- systematic macro investing
- risk transfer premium
- all-weather portfolio construction
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Standpoint Funds
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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