Episode summary
Short-Term Warning Signs. Long-Term Uptrend | Katie Stockton on What Charts Say About What's Next
Excess Returns
· · 1 hr 2 min · Hosts: Matt Zeigler, Justin Carbonneau · Guests: Katie Stockton
Summary
Katie Stockton said the market still looks like it is in a long-term uptrend heading into 2026, but the pace has slowed and the near term looks more cautious. She emphasized that Fairlead Strategies does not try to forecast year-end targets; instead it watches trend, momentum, support, resistance, and confirmation. On the S&P 500 and other major indices, she sees more volatility, more corrective phases, and a less steep rally than the one that followed the April low.
The short-term picture is weaker because momentum deteriorated in Q4. She pointed to weekly MACD weakness, softer stochastic readings, and the NASDAQ 100’s triangle formation as signs that a breakout or breakdown could come soon. She said confirmed long-term sell signals are still limited, but the lack of confirmation means she is not treating the pullback as a durable top.
Stock and sector leadership has become more mixed. She sees tech’s relative strength fading, while Alphabet, parts of financials, healthcare, and some industrial and materials names look more constructive. Small caps, international equities, gold, silver, utilities, real estate, and Bitcoin all show some constructive setups, but she repeatedly stressed that she wants price confirmation before leaning in more aggressively.
Key takeaways
- Stockton said the long-term U.S. equity trend remains up, but she expects a less steep rally with more volatility and corrective phases in 2026.
- She views the near-term setup as more bearish leaning because Q4 momentum weakened in the NASDAQ 100, weekly MACD, and stochastic indicators.
- The NASDAQ 100 triangle has tight bounds around 25,700 on the upside and 25,000 on the downside, and she is waiting for confirmation before acting.
- She sees tech relative strength fading, while Alphabet looks strongest among the Mag 7 and financials, healthcare, industrials, and materials are showing more promising setups.
- Stockton said gold and silver remain in strong uptrends, while Bitcoin’s short- and intermediate-term signals are positive even though its longer-term gauges have rolled over.
- She thinks international equities, utilities, and real estate may be improving, especially if Treasury yields continue to trend lower.
Notable quotes
“We don't like to anticipate the confirmation. We just like to react to it and indeed we don't have that yet”
“The shorter term view is more bearish leaning for us right now and it comes from the loss of momentum that we saw that was pretty distinct in Q4”
“The cloud itself that's derived from not moving averages of price which is pretty common for technical indicators but rather midpoints of price”
“we have sell signals um but very few are confirmed on a long-term basis”
How the episode opens
It's usually right to assume that a trend in motion will stay in motion, but we also have evidence that it's slowed a little bit to suggest that we'll get into a less um steep rally. We don't like to anticipate the confirmation. We just like to react to it and indeed we don't have that yet.
The shorter term view is more bearish leaning for us right now and it comes from the loss of momentum that we saw that was pretty distinct in Q4. If you zoom in on the NASDAQ 100 chart right now, if you use it a daily version, you'll see there's a triangle formation. And the triangles are indeed neutral formations, but they show a market that's gotten less and less volatile, but it tends to preede a pretty big spike in that volatility either to the upside or downside.
You're watching Excess Returns, the channel that makes complex investing ideas simple enough to actually use, where questions lead to better portfolios. Justin Carbono is with me. I'm Matt Ziggler, and our guest today, the one and only founder and managing partner of Fair Lead Strategies, Katie Stockton.
Welcome back to Access Returns.
Thank you. Good to be with you. — All right, so before we dig all the way into the charts, because we're going we're going around the world with this one through capital markets. Before we dig in, can you give us a highle overview of just how you're reading this technical setup for 2026?
Yeah, and listen, like our our um analysis is not exactly predictive. So, we're not one of the strategists that goes out vocally with a year-end price objective for the S&P 500. Uh, you know, it doesn't really operate that way. Hey, what we feel we do best is honestly identifying the prevailing trend and you know to try to understand what what the risk is, right?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- market trend outlook for 2026
- technical analysis signals
- volatility and risk management
- sector rotation and leadership
- cryptocurrency and precious metals outlook
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Fairlead Strategies
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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