Episode summary
Slow Grind. Big Sell Signal | Katie Stockton on What the Charts Tell Us About What Comes Next
Excess Returns
· · 49 min · Guests: Katie Stockton
Summary
Katie Stockton argued that the market is showing a meaningful loss of momentum beneath the surface, with a new monthly MACD sell signal on the S&P 500 pointing more to a slow-grind, choppy phase than a sharp washout. She said the current setup differs from last year’s correction because breadth has not fully washed out, but weakness in mega-cap leadership and a breakdown in momentum suggest equities may need time to reset before a durable advance.
She also described crude oil as a major cyclical shift, noting that its monthly MACD buy signal arrived in February, before the Middle East conflict, and that the recent spike may be the start of higher highs and higher lows rather than a one-off surge. Gold, by contrast, has had a powerful run and now looks vulnerable to consolidation, with Stockton expecting a sideways-to-lower year as the metal digests gains.
Across sectors, she sees a rotation away from growth and toward value, with energy, utilities, staples, and financials emerging while the Mag 7 and large-cap technology lose relative strength. Her broader message was that investors should focus on the S&P 500, breadth extremes, and disciplined trend signals rather than reacting to headlines or isolated moving-average events.
Key takeaways
- Katie Stockton said the S&P 500’s new monthly MACD sell signal suggests a prolonged, choppy phase rather than a fast correction.
- She said the key S&P support zone is roughly 6130 to 6175, with 5900 the next major downside reference if it breaks.
- Stockton argued crude oil’s February MACD buy signal and breakout above about $68 pointed to a new cycle, not just a geopolitical spike.
- She said the Mag 7 and large-cap technology remain central to index direction, but their loss of leadership is now a drag on the market.
- Stockton expects gold to have an off year and likely trade sideways to lower after an extended parabolic run.
- She said value is outperforming growth, but that does not automatically mean broad market gains; it is more a sign of a weaker tape.
Notable quotes
“We have a new as of the end of March uh MACD sell signal on the monthly chart”
“It's more the slow grind lower that actually is is something that ends up being uh more problematic I would say for the market”
“the shift in crude oil actually began before uh the Middle East conflict began”
“I think it's the beginning of of a different cycle”
“the more interesting setups from a bottom up perspective might actually be those turnarounds and and names that previously you weren't really considering”
How the episode opens
We have a new as of the end of March uh MACD sell signal on the monthly chart. And these they're not often whipsaws. It's more the slow grind lower that actually is is something that ends up being uh more problematic I would say for the market.
And that's a bit more aligned with what we've seen um lately from the S&P 500. the shift in crude oil actually began before uh the Middle East conflict began. So it was pretty interesting to see the monthly MACD, the same thing we were addressing for the S&P 500 for WTI crude oil actually flipped to a so-called buy signal and that was in February.
Hi Katie, welcome back to Excess Returns.
Hey Justin, good to be back. We always like to have you on once every few months just to get an understanding of what is going on beneath the surface of the market from a technical lens which is where your expertise lies. And there's a lot to talk about today.
Um there's a lot going on in the market. Volatility has picked up and so I think what the some of the things that we want to work through with you are talking about you know broad market trends. there's been, you know, some um loss of momentum in the S&P 500 that we're going to talk about.
We'll talk about the trend in things like oil and gold, mega caps, and just some of the more interesting things you're seeing under the surface from a tech uh a sector perspective. Um, and that kind of translates into how you um manage the ETF that you guys run. So, looking forward to this discussion today as I know our audience is as well.
For those that are interested in learning more, you can uh learn more about Katie and the suite of research products that her firm offers, as well as the ETF they advise on at fairly strategies.com.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- macd sell signal
- equity momentum and breadth
- sector rotation
- crude oil breakout
- gold consolidation
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Fairlead Strategies
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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