Episode summary

You’re Misreading the AI Bubble | Gene Munster and Doug Clinton on Why It’s Just Getting Started

Excess Returns · · 1 hr · Guests: Gene Munster, Doug Clinton

You’re Misreading the AI Bubble | Gene Munster and Doug Clinton on Why It’s Just Getting Started – Excess Returns

Summary

Gene Munster and Doug Clinton argue that the AI cycle is still early, not late: they think the current bull market has another two to four years to run, supported by fast revenue growth, continued hyperscaler spending, and valuations that still leave room for earnings to drive returns. They say the Nasdaq can finish 2026 up more than 10% if earnings growth stays in the mid-teens and multiples roughly hold, even while skeptics worry that capex and depreciation are masking the true economics.

A major theme is that AI’s winners may broaden beyond the largest names. Munster expects small-cap tech and non–Mag Seven software and infrastructure names to benefit as the cycle matures, helped by lower rates and the law of large numbers. Clinton says the market is moving from a 20- to 30-year season of asset-light software toward a new season where owning infrastructure and custom compute matters more.

They also make several company-specific calls: hyperscaler AI capex growth could exceed 50%, Apple could launch a well-received Siri by April 30, 2026, and Alphabet may again be the best-performing Mag 7 stock. In autonomy, they see Tesla as progressing but not yet breaking out, while Waymo is the nearer-term scale leader.

Key takeaways

  • Munster expects the AI bull market to continue for another two to four years, with fundamentals still supporting large-cap tech and many smaller AI names.
  • Clinton says the Nasdaq can rise more than 10% in 2026 if mid-teens earnings growth and a roughly 26-27x forward multiple hold.
  • They think non–Mag Seven tech could outperform as the AI cycle broadens and lower rates help smaller, riskier companies.
  • Munster and Clinton expect hyperscaler AI capex growth to exceed 50%, with Meta and Nvidia’s targets pushing the group higher.
  • They see Apple’s AI turnaround and Alphabet’s AI-driven ad momentum as key 2026 stock drivers, while Tesla autonomy remains earlier-stage than Waymo.

Notable quotes

“you probably still have, I think, another two or three years in this sort of AI bull market cycle before things get really insane”

— A speaker on Excess Returns

“if you actually look at the numbers though, for the most part, a lot of these companies, they are supported by fundamentals”

— A speaker on Excess Returns

How the episode opens

You probably still have, I think, another two or three years in this sort of AI bull market cycle before things get really insane. Uh, I know some people think things are already really insane. I think if you actually look at the numbers though, for the most part, a lot of these companies, they are supported by fundamentals.

We still believe we are earlier than most investors uh would would assess at this point that the probability that there is upside to some of these smaller uh companies because the numbers are smaller, the law of large numbers working in their favor when it comes to growth is higher. I think the downside to disbelieving in AI and having it play out if you're a mega cap is that the ones who believe and the ones who invest then win and you become relegated to probably not being a mega cap anymore. it won't be a race to the bottom that they'll actually hold up some of their the pricing more than what I think people expect because at the end of the day if there's value that's being created we think there is a lot more value in thinking than there is in networking it won't be as steep of a price decline as what many are anticipating any discussion about deep water or intelligent alpha products and strategies is not a solicitation to buy or sell any securities and past performance is no guarantee of future returns additional information on Both firms can be found at their websites deepwatermgt.com and intelligentalfalpha.co.

Gan and Doug, welcome back to Access Returns. — Hello. — Thanks for having us. — Today we're going to work through the Deepwater 2026 predictions piece that you put out um a little while ago.

From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →

Topics

  • ai bull market
  • nasdaq earnings and multiples
  • hyperscaler capex
  • ai commoditization pricing pressure
  • autonomous driving robotaxi timelines

Companies and tickers mentioned

  • AAPL
  • GOOGL
  • GOOG
  • AMZN
  • NVDA
  • TSLA
  • Apple
  • Alphabet
  • Amazon
  • Nvidia
  • Tesla
  • Waymo

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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.

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