Episode summary
Inside the Revival of Venture Capital Liquidity with an Industry Pioneer
Exchanges (Goldman Sachs)
· · 32 min · Guests: Hans Swildens, Michael Brandmeyer
Summary
Venture capital’s liquidity problem is now structural: companies are staying private longer, IPOs and M&A have slowed, and large pools of unrealized value are trapped in old funds and portfolios. Hans Swildens argues that secondaries have moved from a distressed niche into a core portfolio-management tool, used for profit-taking, rebalancing, risk reduction, and employee or shareholder liquidity. He says the market is being pushed forward by crowded ownership in a small set of private winners, by weaker distribution rates over the last five years, and by more transactions with clearer pricing.
Swildens also says artificial intelligence is making the private market more uneven. Some older companies are being disrupted or decelerating as budgets shift, while others are reinventing themselves around AI and accelerating sharply. He argues that the fastest-growing AI companies may still face sudden competitive disruption before they go public, which makes underwriting and portfolio sizing more important than ever.
Looking ahead, he sees the venture secondary market continuing to expand and potentially becoming larger than the primary venture market. He says transparency, continuation funds, and even secondaries-on-secondaries are increasing volume, and he frames Goldman Sachs’ acquisition of Industry Ventures as the next institutional phase of a market he believes will keep growing.
Key takeaways
- Swildens says venture secondaries have become a structural liquidity channel because venture-backed companies now take about 14 years, on average, to go public.
- He argues that AI is creating both winners and losers in private markets, with some older companies decelerating while others retool and reaccelerate.
- He says the venture secondary market is already about $170 billion this year and could become larger than the primary market.
- He believes more transparency in private valuations is making both buyers and sellers more willing to trade, which is increasing volume.
- He says the best opportunities may be in older, pre-AI companies that can pivot into AI-first products and monetize existing customer bases.
Notable quotes
“I think this is one of the most exciting times I've ever seen for investing. And I think we're just beginning in it”
“The venture and growth part of the market is becoming large. It's becoming almost the same size as the buyout market”
“today, the average company that's venture-backed that goes public takes 14 years. I mean, that's an eternity”
“the market gets pretty illiquid. And then in terms of M&A and IPO activity which has been challenged over the last five years”
“there's a great investment opportunity in a small cohort of those companies where they still have amazing founders, great management teams, good technical talent”
How the episode opens
One thing that's interesting in our market that's starting to happen is that even participants in the secondary market are starting to get liquidity through secondaries, which historically had never happened. There's so much capital sitting in the system that it's not enough liquidity to give back all the capital into the market. And so, we think that the venture growth market, on the secondary side of the market can be larger than the primary.
I think this is one of the most exciting times I've ever seen for investing. And I think we're just beginning in it. Welcome to Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Great Investors.
I'm Michael Brandmeyer. Venture capital has a liquidity problem. Companies are staying private longer, exits have slowed, and limited partners are asking a simple question: When do I actually get paid?
My guest, Hans Swildens, built Industry Ventures around that question, growing it into a leading venture secondary specialist with roughly $7 billion in assets under supervision before agreeing to combine with Goldman Sachs Asset Management in January of 2026. Today, how severe is the venture liquidity crunch? What's real in AI?
And why he finally said yes to being acquired. Hans, welcome to Great Investors. Thank you for having me.
For our listeners that may not be focused on secondaries all the time, if I'm an early entrepreneur, if I'm an early VC investor or even a later stage investor, what are the reasons that people are selling to secondary players like you? Well, the reasons have been changing over time. So, when we first started you know, 26 years ago most of it was distressed sellers, sellers that no longer wanted the investments anymore like a corporate venture capital fund decided to terminate their investments and then sell the portfolio, or a hedge fund decided to stop making private investments and just concentrate on the liquid securities and sell their private portfolio.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- venture capital liquidity
- secondary markets
- private company staying private longer
- ai impact on venture portfolios
- venture capital deal pricing
Companies and tickers mentioned
- GS
- Goldman Sachs
- Industry Ventures
Watch the episode
Watch “Inside the Revival of Venture Capital Liquidity with an Industry Pioneer” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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Exchanges (Goldman Sachs), this episode and its artwork belong to Goldman Sachs. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
