Episode summary
John Waldron on GDP Growth, AI, and the M&A Outlook
Exchanges (Goldman Sachs)
· · 22 min · Guests: John Waldron
Summary
Goldman Sachs President and COO John Waldron said clients are still generally optimistic, but with more caution around inflation, geopolitics, higher rates, and the rising cost of capital. He argued that strong nominal growth, resilient consumers, and solid earnings are supporting corporate activity, even as companies think more carefully about 2027 planning and the impact of persistent price pressure.
Waldron was constructive on the US and Asia, said Europe is more muted, and called Europe’s sentiment the weakest of the major regions he sees. He said corporate M&A is on track to rise 30% to 35% in 2026, making it a record year, and linked that momentum to a bias for scale as well as a wave of spins and carve-outs. He also pointed to financing, asset and wealth management, and Asia as major growth opportunities for Goldman Sachs.
On AI, Waldron laid out a four-part strategy: employee literacy, software development efficiency, internal automation, and client-facing tools. He said Goldman Sachs is using targeted acquisitions to fill capability gaps in asset management and believes culture and integration discipline will be central as the firm grows.
Key takeaways
- Waldron said business leaders remain optimistic, but inflation, geopolitics, and higher rates are making them more cautious.
- He expects US real growth around 2.5% plus or minus, with nominal growth north of 6% and inflation likely drifting down.
- Waldron said corporate M&A could be up 30% to 35% in 2026, driven by a strong pipeline and a bias for scale.
- He sees financing, Asia, and asset and wealth management as major growth avenues for Goldman Sachs.
- Waldron said Goldman Sachs is using AI for employee adoption, coding efficiency, automation, and better client advice.
- He said recent acquisitions are meant to fill capability gaps in asset management, while culture remains the key integration test.
Notable quotes
“I think still, generally speaking, optimistic. Maybe a little more cautious at the margin versus where it would have been six, 12 months ago”
“We're going to see corporate M&A up 30%, 35% this year. So that's a pretty healthy growth factor on what was already a pretty strong base”
“We basically have a four-pronged strategy. The first of which is literacy and adoption”
“We are very scaled. We're north of $4 trillion of assets on our platform”
How the episode opens
Markets are navigating an unusual mix of resilient growth, shifting rate expectations, and rapid technological change. Against that backdrop, how is Goldman Sachs reading the moment and positioning the firm for what comes next? I'm Allison Nathan, and this is Goldman Sachs Exchanges.
Today, I'm joined by John Waldron, President and Chief Operating Officer of Goldman Sachs. We'll discuss the current sentiment among business leaders and investors, the outlook for markets and the economy, and where Goldman Sachs sees its next avenues for growth. John, welcome back to Exchanges.
Thank you, Allison. Good to be here. John, let's just start with a quick gut check.
There's so much going on in the world, and markets, as you well know, have been increasingly volatile. You spend much of your time with our corporate and investing clients. How would you describe the mood among business leaders and investors today compared to, say, a year ago?
I think still, generally speaking, optimistic. Maybe a little more cautious at the margin versus where it would have been six, 12 months ago. Inflation is higher, and that feeds through a lot of businesses.
So particularly for CEOs running large multinational corporations, inflation is a real challenge. I think geopolitics continues to be a challenge. It hasn't necessarily gotten any better, maybe a little bit worse, particularly when you think about the Iran situation.
And so I think more caution around the impact of the geopolitics on inflation and then obviously on rates. So, the environment we're in today versus where we would've been six, 12 months ago is we have higher inflation, we have higher rates. And so the cost of capital in the economy is higher.
The cost of doing business from an inflation standpoint is higher. Fortunately, nominal growth is very good, so most companies are seeing pretty strong end demand, and we still have very strong earnings.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- m&a outlook
- gdp growth
- ai strategy
- asset management
- wealth management
Companies and tickers mentioned
- GS
- Goldman Sachs
Watch the episode
Watch “John Waldron on GDP Growth, AI, and the M&A Outlook” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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