Episode summary
What the IPO Boom Means for the US Equity Outlook
Exchanges (Goldman Sachs)
· · 10 min · Hosts: Tucker York, Alison Mass, FX de Mallmann, Allison Nathan, George Lee · Guests: Ben Snider
Summary
IPO activity has rebounded sharply in 2026, with just shy of 50 U.S. IPOs by midyear, about double the pace at this point last year and the strongest year-to-date count since 2021. Ben Snider says the rebound reflects both a normal recovery from several years of muted issuance and a wave of large companies coming to market, especially those tied to AI capital needs. He notes that in dollar terms, issuance is already near a record pace, with about $120 billion in IPO volume so far and roughly $700 billion expected when IPOs and follow-ons are combined.
Snider argues that the surge is a positive signal for sentiment, but not necessarily evidence of a bubble peak. He says valuation and confidence are elevated, yet still well below the extremes of 2021 or 1999, and the deal count remains far from euphoric levels. His IPO Barometer, which tracks rates, confidence, and valuations, is at 140 versus a long-term average of 100, indicating a supportive backdrop.
On the broader equity outlook, Snider says the main fear is that new supply will overwhelm the market, but he thinks that is unlikely in 2026 because buybacks should exceed $1 trillion and IPO floats are still relatively small. He expects earnings to remain the main driver of U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 up about 10% year to date and forward earnings up about 17%, even as volatility persists.
Key takeaways
- Ben Snider says U.S. IPOs are running at just shy of 50 year to date, about double last year’s pace and the best since 2021.
- Snider says dollar issuance is near a record pace, with about $120 billion in IPO volume so far and roughly $700 billion expected including follow-ons.
- Snider sees the IPO boom as a sign of positive sentiment, but not yet the kind of euphoric extreme seen in 1999 or 2021.
- Snider says IPO supply should not overwhelm the market this year because buybacks are expected to top $1 trillion and market demand remains strong.
- Snider expects earnings to keep driving U.S. equities higher even if volatility stays elevated, with the bull trend still intact.
Notable quotes
“We're just about halfway through the calendar year, and so far, we've seen just shy of 50 US IPOs”
“today we're at 140, which is not as high as we got in 2021, but otherwise at the top of the range”
“it still looks like we're a far cry from that level of euphoric sentiment that we saw in those episodes”
“that supply is going to overwhelm the market”
“our expectation is that will continue”
How the episode opens
The IPO market is booming again. But is the surge in activity a sign of market strength or a warning that the market is at its peak? I'm Allison Nathan, and this is Goldman Sachs Exchanges.
Today, I'm sitting down with my colleague in Goldman Sachs Research, Ben Snider, Chief US Equity Strategist. Ben, welcome back to Exchanges. Good to be with you.
So Ben, let's get into it. I know you're getting lots of questions about this topic. We've obviously seen years of muted issuance, and that was a topic for quite some time, but IPO activity has clearly accelerated.
So just give us the context. Put some numbers on it for us. How much growth have we seen?
We're just about halfway through the calendar year, and so far, we've seen just shy of 50 US IPOs. That's about double what we saw at this point last year, and it's the largest number of deals at this point in the calendar year since 2021, which was one of the largest IPO years on record. So we are definitely seeing a recovery.
What's notable though is that the size of the deals on average has been very large, and so in dollar terms, we're already basically tied with 2021 for a record year of about $120 billion in issuance. Right. So number of deals is up tremendously, as is the size of those deals, so pretty impressive stuff we're seeing.
What's driving this activity? Talk us through that. So one, as you noted, is we're recovering from a four-year stretch of very muted activity.
We had an IPO boom in 2021, valuations were very elevated. We had the sharpest Fed hiking cycle on record, and that led to a few years of recovering valuations. And so to some extent, what's happening is just a normal recovery.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- ipo boom
- investor sentiment
- us equity outlook
- equity market peak
- capital markets
Companies and tickers mentioned
- GS
- Goldman Sachs
Watch the episode
Watch “What the IPO Boom Means for the US Equity Outlook” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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