Episode summary
2026 Market Outlook (Ep. 169)
Facts vs Feelings
· · Hosts: Ryan Detrick, Sonu Varghese
Summary
The host and a guest frame 2026 as a continuation of a still-intact bull market, with Carson Group expecting the S&P 500 to return 12% to 15% and bonds 3% to 5%. Their core argument is that earnings growth, margin resilience, and a constructive macro backdrop matter more than short-term volatility or headline fear. They say 2025’s shock events, especially tariff scares and the spring drawdown, ultimately fit historical patterns and were offset by companies protecting profits better than expected.
They argue the economy is slowing but not breaking. Auto sales, low layoffs, and a proprietary leading indicator suggest no recession, even though payroll growth has been weak and the unemployment rate has drifted higher. The guest says nominal GDP and profit growth should stay supportive, with 2026 earnings expected around 14% and perhaps more if AI-driven productivity improves further.
They also make the case that policy and global markets remain important tailwinds. Tax cuts, possible Fed easing, and a lower tariff burden could help U.S. stocks, while developed international markets and emerging markets still look attractive. AI capital spending is presented as a major multi-year driver, with big tech capex expected to rise to about $515 billion in 2026.
Key takeaways
- The host says Carson’s base case is 12% to 15% S&P 500 total return in 2026, with bonds returning 3% to 5%.
- The guest says the economy is slowing but not in recession territory, citing strong auto sales, low layoffs, and a proprietary leading indicator.
- Both argue that 2025’s biggest market surprise was how well companies protected margins despite tariff pressure.
- The guest says big tech AI capex surged from about $240 billion in 2024 to about $400 billion in 2025, and could reach about $515 billion in 2026.
- The host says earnings and breadth still favor equities, with forward earnings rising and market leadership broadening beyond large-cap tech.
- They remain constructive on international stocks, especially developed markets, and see a weaker dollar as a continuing tailwind.
Notable quotes
“we expect 12 to 15% which is above average”
“the economy is hanging in there”
“profits by expanding margins in the face of massive tariff Edwins”
“we are at the ballpark here of a pretty significant tactical low”
“one company's spending is another company's revenue and profits”
How the episode opens
Welcome to the Facts Versus Feelings podcast. I'm your host, Ryan Dietrich, and I'm joined by my co-host, Sonu Vargis. Cutting through the noise each week with Ryan Dietrich, chief market strategist, and Sona Vargis, VP global macro strategist.
Taking out the boring and helping investors focus on what really matters. All right, Sonu, we're back. This is our market outlook for 2026.
We're going to get into that. But first things first, I saw someone on Poly Market. So, I'm make sure this wasn't you.
Okay. — Um put a bet that um is it bet? I guess put a I guess bet. We'll call it a bet. I — Think bet is fair. — I think bet's okay. So, uh that Maduro would be out by the end of January. They put down $32,000 to win $436,000 uh dollars. And um was that you?
This was the night before, right? No, I wish it was. Okay. Yeah. Making sure it wasn't you. I'm just making sure we're not I know doing something.
I know. I'd probably maybe I'd be retired. I don't know.
I may need more than $400,000 to retire, but you know, that's a pretty nice sum of money to make. And you know, but that gets to Polyark. I think was it the CEO or founder of Poly Market said like you kind of want insider trading on this thing because it reflects all the information.
I was like okay I guess you know somebody knew they bet on it. They made money.
You think at the end of the day you know they could have made a lot more right? I mean they made I mean I I don't mean to minimize $400,000. That's a lot of money. But hey if you have inside information if you're making a bet I mean why not more?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- 2026 market outlook
- earnings growth
- ai capex
- tariffs and margins
- fed cuts and labor market
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Carson Group
- Carson Investment Research
Watch the episode
Watch “2026 Market Outlook (Ep. 169)” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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Facts vs Feelings, this episode and its artwork belong to Carson Investment Research. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
