About these summaries
Octagon has summarized 72 episodes of Facts vs Feelings published between Jul 2, 2025 and Nov 11, 2026. The companies discussed most often are Carson Group, Nvidia and Anthropic. Frequent guests include Barry Gilbert, Art Hogan and Blake Anderson. Each summary lists key takeaways, short timestamped quotes and the companies and tickers mentioned, with a link to the full episode.
Most-mentioned tickers
- NVDA 13
- AAPL 6
- GOOG 3
- GOOGL 3
- META 3
- MSFT 3
- AMD 2
- AMZN 2
- JPM 2
- MU 2
Most-mentioned companies
- Carson Group 39
- Nvidia 14
- Anthropic 6
- Apple 6
- OpenAI 6
- SpaceX 5
- Google 3
- Meta 3
- Microsoft 3
- Amazon 2
- Bitcoin 2
- Carson Investment Research 2
- Commodity Context 2
- CWM, LLC 2
- Federal Reserve 2
Frequent guests
- Barry Gilbert 3
- Art Hogan 2
- Blake Anderson 2
- Rory Johnston 2
Episodes
- Are You Not Entertained? (FvF Ep. 213)
The episode centers on two shocks that hit markets in quick succession: the Jensen Huang story and the midterm election results.
- When Will the Madness End? (FvF Ep. 212)
October looked calm in the S&P 500 headline, but the market underneath was extremely violent.
- Live From Excell 2026 (FvF Special Release)
The discussion centered on why the 10-year Treasury yield was near 5% and whether the market should be pricing even higher rates.
- Be Careful What You Wish For (FvF Ep. 211)
The episode argues that investors may be getting what they asked for when breadth finally improves: more participation, but less of the high-quality tech leadership that has…
- Talking Midterms with Libby Cantrill (FvF Ep. 210)
Libby Cantrill argued that the midterm environment is starting to look like a potential blue wave.
- The Bull Market Turns Four (FvF Ep. 209)
The hosts mark the bull market’s fourth birthday and argue that the rally has been driven far more by earnings than by valuation expansion.
- Market Breadth is Overrated (FvF Ep. 208)
The hosts argue that market breadth is a poor guide right now because the market’s biggest weights are doing the work.
- Rory Johnston Returns (FvF Ep. 207)
Rory Johnston argued that the oil market is still in a severe physical deficit even though Strait of Hormuz flows have recovered far more than many expected.
- Tech or Bust? (FvF Ep. 206)
The hosts argued that the market’s real story is still tech leadership, not weak breadth.
- Is AI Going to Kill All of Us? (FvF Ep. 205)
The discussion opens with AI safety fears, led by a viral tweet from a former Anthropic employee warning that civilization might not survive the decade and by an OpenAI/Hugging…
- Everything's Running Hot! (FvF Ep. 204)
The hosts argued that the U.S. economy is still running hot, with the labor market as the clearest sign of strength.
- Want the Rainbow? Put Up With the Rain (FvF Ep. 203)
The hosts opened with a listener question on why oil and gasoline have not surged far more despite turmoil around the Strait of Hormuz.
- All About Debase (FvF Ep. 202)
The hosts argue that last week’s Treasury move to double long-end bond buybacks was less a routine liquidity operation than a signal that officials were uncomfortable with the…
- Is The Consumer Tapped Out? (FvF Ep. 201)
A major theme is the increasingly circular financing behind the AI buildout.
- Celebrating #200 With Art Hogan (FvF Ep. 200)
The live Boston episode centered on why markets keep hitting highs despite bubble fears, inflation worries, and Fed uncertainty.
- One Trillion Dollars (FvF Ep. 199)
AI spending is now so large that it is moving both markets and macro data.
- Welcome to the Chip Crash (FvF Ep. 198)
Apple reclaimed the title of world’s largest company by market cap by staying out of the AI capex arms race, while Google, Amazon and Microsoft keep ramping spending into the…
- JC Parets Returns (FvF Ep. 197)
JC Parets argues that the market still looks like a bull market because the breadth data do not resemble a developing bear market.
- Here's Our Midyear Outlook 2026 (FvF Ep. 196)
Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese revisit Carson Group’s 2026 market outlook and argue that the year has strengthened enough to justify a higher equity target.
- The Summer Rally Continues (FvF Ep. 195)
The episode argues that the 2026 summer rally is being driven by fundamentals, not a valuation bubble.
- Stop, Drop, & Rotate (FvF Ep. 194)
The hosts framed the recent pullback as a classic June swoon, but argued it was really a Mag Seven swoon rather than broad market weakness.
- Let’s Run It Hot (FvF Ep. 193)
The hosts mark the death of Alan Greenspan and use his Fed tenure to frame a bigger argument about central-bank communication and market behavior.
- Live from Chicago with Jim Bianco and Jeff Kilberg (FvF Ep. 191)
Markets were framed as a powerful but increasingly concentrated AI-led rally, with the panel arguing that the move is not necessarily a bubble so much as an early-stage…
- Talking SpaceX IPO (FvF Ep. 190)
The discussion centered on a narrow but powerful market rally, with the host and Sonu Varghese arguing that the S&P 500’s nine-week winning streak reflects momentum, FOMO and a…
- Welcome to the Party, Mr. Warsh (FvF Ep. 188)
The hosts frame Kevin Warsh’s arrival as the new Fed chair against a bond-market challenge rather than an equity-market one: the 30-year Treasury yield is above 5%, the 10-year…
- Party Like It's 1999 (FvF Ep. 187)
The hosts argue that the market’s recent strength looks superficially like 1999, but the internals are different enough that it is not a true dot-com replay.
- Talking 'Sell in May' with Jeff Hirsch (FvF Ep. 186)
Jeff Hirsch argues that “Sell in May” is widely misunderstood: it is not a call to liquidate on May 1, but a seasonal reminder to reposition, tighten stops, and reduce risk as…
- Still Searching For Buffett (FvF Ep. 185)
The hosts argue that stocks can keep making new highs even when sentiment is sour because earnings, profit margins, and nominal growth remain strong.
- The Bull is Back (FvF Ep. 184)
The host and the guest argued that the market’s sharp rebound was driven by fundamentals, not just relief, with forward earnings estimates rising again across the biggest sectors.
- Talking Oil and Iran with Rory Johnston (FvF Ep. 183)
Rory Johnston argues that the Strait of Hormuz crisis has created a historic physical oil disruption, even if headline prices have not fully caught up.
- Who’s the Skunk at the Party? (FvF Ep. 182)
Inflation is the central risk in this episode, with the host framing Jamie Dimon’s “skunk at the party” line as a warning that the real threat is not just war or tariffs but a…
- Is there Light at the End of the Tunnel? (FvF Ep. 181)
The conversation centers on the Strait of Hormuz crisis and what a U.S. pullback could mean for oil, geopolitics, and markets.
- It Takes Two To Tango (Ep. 180)
Markets were framed as shaky but not broken: the host and a guest argued that the recent selloff looks more like a normal pullback than the start of a bear market.
- Strait to Trouble (Ep. 179)
The episode argues that a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is less about headline oil prices than about the flow of energy and the knock-on effects across the global economy.
- Talking About AI with Steve Hou and Kai Wu (Ep. 178)
The conversation argues that AI is not just a story about better models, but about where value accrues across the stack: chips, memory, data centers, energy, orchestration tools…
- We’ve Got a Lot of Problems (Ep. 177)
Oil and gasoline were the immediate catalysts for a broader risk-off move, with WTI jumping above $76 and Brent near $83 after disruption around the Strait of Hormuz raised…
- No Tariffs for You! (Ep. 176)
The episode argues that the Supreme Court’s 6-3 ruling on IEEPA tariffs meaningfully resets the policy landscape by stripping the president of that tariff tool and pushing most…
- A Tale Of Two Markets (Ep. 175)
The hosts argued that the market is not one story but several, with leadership rotating sharply beneath a flat S&P 500.
- Deja Vu All Over Again (Ep. 174)
Software, AI-linked stocks, and Bitcoin sold off hard even as the broader market held up much better than the headlines suggested.
- Warsh & Repeat (Ep. 173)
The hosts argued that Kevin Warsh’s expected rise to Fed chair would create more noise than clarity.
- Rieder or Not, Gold Shines, & Shutdown Looms (Ep. 172)
Gold and silver’s surge anchors the episode’s main argument: rising commodity prices, sticky inflation, and large fiscal deficits are reinforcing a debasement trade rather than a…
- When Do We Get Tacos? (Ep. 171)
Markets turned choppier after a long stretch of calm, with the host and a guest arguing that geopolitics, renewed tariff threats tied to Greenland, and rising bond yields were…
- Rumble in Washington (Ep. 170)
The hosts argue that markets are still being driven more by earnings, productivity, and consumer resilience than by political noise, even as Washington creates fresh uncertainty…
- 2026 Market Outlook (Ep. 169)
The host and a guest frame 2026 as a continuation of a still-intact bull market, with Carson Group expecting the S&P 500 to return 12% to 15% and bonds 3% to 5%.
- Geeking Out On Charts with Chris Kimble and Scott Brown (Ep. 168)
The episode centered on a striking late-year market backdrop: a sharp rebound from the April lows, improving leadership beneath the surface, and what Chris Kimble and Scott Brown…
- Wrapping Up 2025 with Art Hogan, the Boston GOAT (Ep. 167)
Art Hogan argued that 2025 was much broader and healthier than the market’s mood suggested.
- The Fed Comes Bearing Gifts (Ep. 166)
The hosts argue that the market’s message after the Fed’s latest meeting was much more dovish than the headlines suggested.
- Is Reacceleration in the Cards? (Ep. 165)
The hosts argue that the recent rise in global yields looks more like a growth signal than an inflation alarm.
- Back to December (Ep. 164)
The hosts argued that the late-November selloff was a sentiment washout rather than the start of a bear phase, and that the rebound confirmed the market remains in a strong…
- Talking Macro and Charts with Jurrien Timmer (Ep. 163)
Jurrien Timmer argued that the market is sitting on top of both a cyclical bull market and a longer secular bull market, with the latest leg beginning in late 2022 after rates…
- Volatility, May I Meet You? (Ep. 162)
Market volatility was traced mainly to a hawkish shift from the Fed after the October meeting, which pushed December rate-cut odds from about 90% to roughly 44%.
- Winter is Here (Ep. 161)
The hosts argued that the market backdrop remains constructive even with a noisy political and data environment.
- Don’t Sleep on Momentum (Ep. 160)
The episode argues that the current market advance should be understood as momentum, not just a reflex bounce.
- A Facts vs Feelings Special: Talking Markets With Joe Fahmy and Warren Pies
Joe Fahmy argued that the market is broader than the usual “Magnificent 7” narrative and still has multiple growth engines, especially AI, software, chips, data centers, energy…
- Here Comes the Year-End Rally (Ep. 159)
The hosts argue that a year-end rally is already underway and that the setup into November and December remains unusually favorable.
- No Cockroaches in a Bull Market (Ep. 158)
The episode argues that the recent “cockroaches” in credit are real, but so far they look idiosyncratic rather than a broad-system warning.
- Oops...the China Trade War Is Back (Ep. 157)
The host and a guest argued that U.S.-China tensions have shifted into what they called Trade War 3.0, with 100% tariffs, export restrictions, and China’s rare earth controls…
- Shutdown...but Not Out (Ep. 156)
Gold was the leading signal in the discussion: the host and a guest argued that the metal’s surge toward $4,000 an ounce reflects falling real yields, expectations for Fed…
- Talking Gold, Crypto, and More With Jan van Eck (Ep. 155)
Jan van Eck argued that markets are in the middle of a major structural reset in crypto, payments, and thematic investing.
- No, This Isn’t 1929 (Ep. 154)
The hosts pushed back hard on comparisons between today’s market and 1929, arguing that the analogy is mostly alarmism.
- Live From Excell With Dr. David Kelly (Ep. 153)
Dr. David Kelly argued that the labor market is slowing, but the headline jobs data are being distorted by repeated revisions and weak survey response rates.
- Live From Excell With Strider Elass and Sam Rines (Ep. 152)
The live Excell 2025 conversation focused on a softer labor market, still-sticky services inflation, and how tariffs are changing both growth and company behavior heading into…
- September Blues (Ep. 151)
The hosts argued that Jackson Hole was more dovish than it looked on the surface, but not dovish enough to lock in a September cut.
- Cliff Asness Returns (Ep. 150)
Cliff Asness said markets are expensive but not yet in the kind of full-blown bubble he would reserve for extremes like 1999-2000 or late 2020.
- The Fed Has an Inflation Problem (Ep. 149)
The episode argues that inflation is still running hot enough to complicate the Fed’s path to rate cuts, even though the latest CPI report was not as bad as feared.
- Talking Charts with J.C. Parets (Ep. 148)
J.C. Parets argues that technical analysis is really the study of market behavior and positioning, not a contest between charts and fundamentals.
- You're Fired! (Ep. 147)
The episode centered on the July jobs report, where payrolls rose only 73,000 versus 104,000 expected, and prior months were revised down by a combined 255,000.
- Au Revoir, Trade War (Ep. 146)
The hosts argued that the market’s strength is broader and more durable than skeptics suggest.
- What Goes Around...and Up, Up, Up (Ep. 145)
Stocks were at fresh highs because earnings have started solidly and forward profit expectations keep rising.
- Jerome on the Ropes (Ep. 144)
The hosts focused on two big macro themes: political pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the early evidence on tariffs in inflation data.
- Midyear Market Outlook '25 (Ep. 143)
The hosts argued that 2025 has been defined by an early tariff shock, a fast reversal, and a market that rebounded far more quickly than many expected.
- Talking With the Best Portfolio Manager We Know (Ep. 142)
Barry Gilbert argues that strong portfolio management starts with a clear foundation: own the long-term risk premiums from stocks and bonds, then add smaller bets only when they…
Facts vs Feelings, its episodes and artwork belong to Carson Investment Research. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; these pages are independent summaries.
