Episode summary
Talking 'Sell in May' with Jeff Hirsch (FvF Ep. 186)
Facts vs Feelings
· · Hosts: Ryan Detrick, Sonu Varghese · Guests: Jeff Hirsch
Summary
Jeff Hirsch argues that “Sell in May” is widely misunderstood: it is not a call to liquidate on May 1, but a seasonal reminder to reposition, tighten stops, and reduce risk as the market enters its historically weaker six months. He says the pattern is strongest when viewed over long histories, and that MACD signals layered on seasonality improve timing for both entries and exits. He also says the Nasdaq’s growing weight in the S&P 500 has pushed the weak window further into June.
He connects that seasonal setup to broader cycle work, saying the Trump presidency pattern, the midterm-year pattern, and the sixth year of a presidency all argue for a choppy but not necessarily disastrous summer. Jeff says headline risk, lingering geopolitical uncertainty, and firm earnings can keep the market sideways even if they do not force new lows. He still leaves room for a bullish year-end setup if conditions improve.
On sectors, Jeff favors utilities and staples in the weak months and says gold may have topped in the near term after a strong run. He also points to grains and commodities as more attractive tactical ideas right now. More broadly, he says the best seasonal edges come from institutions, cash flows, and calendar-driven behavior, not from trying to guess every daily move.
Key takeaways
- Jeff Hirsch says “Sell in May” really means repositioning, not abandoning equities, because the weak stretch is historically about risk management rather than automatic declines.
- He says MACD combined with seasonal patterns helps time the buy in October and the sell in early spring better than seasonality alone.
- Jeff argues utilities and staples tend to hold up in the weak months, while gold looks topped for now and grains may be the better tactical opportunity.
- He says the Trump cycle and midterm-year pattern point to a choppy, sideways summer unless geopolitical issues resolve cleanly.
- He says the best seasonal edges come from institutional cash flows, mutual fund deadlines, and quarterly reporting behavior, not superstition.
- Jeff still expects a bullish full-year outcome, with his broader forecast framed around an 8% to 12% or even 12% to 15% gain depending on conditions.
Notable quotes
“it's not sell in May and go away. It's reposition in May and realize that May through October are the worst six months of the year”
“we use MACD a technical indicator um overlaid with the seasonal pattern to improve the gains”
“the reason selling May and October phobia and you know, buying on October work is the mutual fund deadline October 31st”
“I still have a a a bullish forecast for the year. We put out in December for 8 to 12% year-over-year”
“I think it's topped right here”
How the episode opens
Welcome to the Facts Versus Feelings podcast. I'm your host, Ryan Dietrich, and I'm joined by my co-host, Sonar Geese. Cutting through the noise each week with Ryan Dietrich, chief market strategist, and Sonar Geese, chief macro strategist.
taking out the boring and helping investors focus on what really matters and we are back. Episode 186 of Carson's Facts Versus Feelings. Ryan and Sonu as always.
We are joined by a very special guest, a close friend, a legend in the industry, Mr. Jeff Hirsch over at Almanac Trader. I know we like titles and stuff around here, Jeff.
So, we have to start with that. What is your official title?
I am the editor-inchief of the stock traders almanac — And I refer to myself as son of legend since my father who started this thing. Okay. — 60 years ago is the real legend. — 60 years ago. Wow. — Nick zero. — Amazing.
So, I was going through I I mean this is for the YouTube channel. There's the two 2024. There's 2025 stocks turn on Mac and always right on my desk is a 2026.
I'm sure I have others. I'm not sure where I stashed them, but yeah, you always send those to me. I always look forward to that.
Sometimes you write me a little note like how much you look look up to me and appreciate me and blah blah blah. Let's see. Ryan, you are truly the greatest person I've ever met.
Sign Jeff, you wrote something. I can't read it. Anyway, but uh you're you're the man.
We are so excited. Cell and May, go away. So much to talk about.
Uh so new, how do we want to start this uh this this conversation? itself. I mean, actually, let's start here.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- sell in may
- market seasonality
- macd signals
- sector rotation utilities staples
- trump presidential cycle
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Carson Group
- Stock Trader's Almanac
Watch the episode
Watch “Talking 'Sell in May' with Jeff Hirsch (FvF Ep. 186)” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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