Episode summary
September Blues (Ep. 151)
Facts vs Feelings
· · Hosts: Ryan Detrick, Sonu Varghese
Summary
The hosts argued that Jackson Hole was more dovish than it looked on the surface, but not dovish enough to lock in a September cut. They said Powell emphasized risks on both sides of the mandate, noted that policy is still restrictive, and used the word “may” when describing whether a shift in stance is warranted. Markets are already pricing in a big easing cycle, with roughly six cuts by the end of 2026, but they think the next few data points, especially payrolls and CPI, could still change the near-term outlook.
They also linked the market’s strength to a broader bull case: a steepening yield curve, easing abroad, possible fiscal support, and a potential release of home equity if borrowing costs fall. Even with seasonal September weakness and some near-term tech fragility, they argued the long-term setup remains constructive. One host said a 20% to 25% year-end gain is possible, while the other warned that a hot CPI or a stronger labor report could create volatility and push back expectations for a cut.
A major theme was inflation. The hosts said durable-goods inflation may be tariff-driven and transitory, but services inflation remains sticky and broadening. They also made the case for gold as a strategic hedge, citing its eight-month winning streak, its role as a currency diversifier, and the weakening stock-bond correlation. International equities and non-U.S. policy easing were presented as additional parts of a global bull market, not a replacement for U.S. stocks.
Key takeaways
- The hosts said Jackson Hole was dovish, but Powell’s wording made a September rate cut plausible rather than guaranteed.
- Markets are pricing in roughly six rate cuts by the end of 2026, which the hosts see as a major tailwind for housing and cyclicals.
- The hosts said services inflation is the bigger problem because it is broadening beyond goods and remains above pre-pandemic norms.
- Gold was described as a strategic diversifier because inflation is likely to stay volatile and bonds may not hedge stocks as well as before.
- Seasonality could still matter: the hosts see September as a high-risk month for volatility even inside a longer-term bull market.
Notable quotes
“Powell said, "Look, the risks to both sides of the mandate is rising”
“policy rights are right now in restrictive territory”
“The market is pricing in four cuts next year on top of two cuts this year”
“I think the Fed's got an inflation problem”
“gold is a good hedge for that”
How the episode opens
Welcome to the Facts Versus Feelings podcast. I'm your host, Ryan Dietrich, and I'm joined by my co-host, Sonu Vargis. Cutting through the noise in 30 minutes each week with Ryan Dietrich, chief market strategist, and Sona Vargis, VP global macro strategist.
Taking out the boring and helping investors focus on what really matters. A quick note before we start the show. Investment advisory services offered through CWM LLC, an SEC registered investment advisor.
Carson Partners, a division of CWM LLC, is a nationwide partnership of adviserss. Hi everyone, welcome to episode 151 of Facts Versus Feelings. Ryan and Sonu Son September Blues, the time we're recording, the stocks are down.
I don't know, maybe you should have called it red September, but we we'll see where it goes. Obviously, last week we had Cliff on Cliff Aes um over from AQR, founder over at AQR. Amazing discussion.
So, we've got a lot to talk about more real time. So, let's just kind of dive into it. Um you know, we don't need to spend a ton of time because almost feels like old news, but Jackson Hole sparked an incredible rally um to end the normally weak month of August.
We'll talk a little bit about the strength of the bull market and different things, but high level, you know, you've had a lot of time to think about it now. Just how dovish how just how dovish was Jackson Hole? think
It's very doubbish. I mean, because look at the if you just look at what the because there's always like, okay, what did they say and how did markets react, right? — Exactly. — And I it's always nice to pay attention to how did markets react and especially once you've had two, three, one week to two, three days, one week to sleep on it.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- fed dovish stance
- rate cuts pricing
- yield curve steepening
- gold as hedge
- september seasonality
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Federal Reserve
Watch the episode
Watch “September Blues (Ep. 151)” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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