Episode summary
Wrapping Up 2025 with Art Hogan, the Boston GOAT (Ep. 167)
Facts vs Feelings
· · Hosts: Ryan Detrick, Sonu Varghese · Guests: Art Hogan
Summary
Art Hogan argued that 2025 was much broader and healthier than the market’s mood suggested. He said investors fixated on the Mag Seven and concentration fears missed that 37% of S&P 500 stocks outperformed the index, five sectors kept pace or did better, and leadership widened into utilities, industrials, financials, and healthcare. He also said the sharp selloff in speculative themes such as quantum computing, small nuclear reactors, lithium and uranium mining, and even Bitcoin helped reset sentiment and forced investors to reprice risk more rationally.
The discussion also centered on policy and macro support. Hogan said the Fed has already cut rates three times and will likely cut again in 2026, while the labor market is softer than the headlines imply because revisions are catching up to weak hiring. He was skeptical of reading too much into the dot plot and said the committee’s projections are forecasts, not commitments.
Looking to 2026, Hogan expects a broadening rally led by financials and healthcare, with small caps and midcaps helped by lower rates and easier regulation. He published an S&P 500 target of 7600, based on $315 in earnings and a continued market multiple that reflects a broader set of winners than just the biggest AI names.
Key takeaways
- Hogan said the market is less concentrated than investors think, with 37% of S&P 500 stocks beating the index and five sectors outperforming in 2025.
- He said speculative pockets were a healthy reset, as quantum, reactor, uranium, lithium and other high-multiple themes sold off hard in November.
- Hogan expects the Fed to keep easing, and he thinks labor-market revisions matter more than the headline monthly payroll prints.
- He likes profitable small caps in the S&P 600 more than the Russell 2000 because the Russell includes too many unprofitable names.
- For 2026, Hogan is most constructive on financials and healthcare, and he set an S&P 500 target of 7600.
- He said developed international had a strong year, but he is shifting more exposure toward developing markets next year.
Notable quotes
“if you went back the last two years and looked at the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 that were doing better than the index, this is the highest at 37% that we've seen”
How the episode opens
Welcome to the Facts Versus Feelings podcast. I'm your host Ryan Dietrich and I'm joined by my co-host Sonu Vargis. Cutting through the noise in 30 minutes each week with Ryan Dietrich, chief market strategist and Sona Vargis, VP global macro strategist.
Taking out the boring and helping investors focus on what really matters. A quick note before we start the show. investment advisory services offered through CWM LLC, an SEC registered investment advisor.
Carson Partners, a division of CWM LLC, is a nationwide partnership of adviserss. And we are back with the final episode of Facts Versus Feelings for 2025. And we're bringing in the big guns, everybody.
This is episode 167, wrapping up 2025 with Art Hogan. And I've got aka the Boston Goat. I don't know if we can put that part on the title, but I really want to have that there.
Art Sodu is having some issues. Sonu might join us. He might not.
Uh but I think you and I can talk for 45 minutes. Art, I'm I'm a huge fan. I'm honored.
Um you're really excited, right?
I really am. And I think that uh the excitement comes from a couple different places. I think 2025 surprised a lot of people.
first part of the year, first quarter of the year, obviously we had a draw down of almost 20% on the S&P 500 right into right into April 2nd. And that was really driven by a couple things. I think it's really important to think about new administration coming in.
Four basic pillars, right? We're going to have uh less immigration. We're going to have the same corporate tax rate.
We're going to have less regulation. We're going to have tariffs. Unfortunately, of those four,
Yeah, — You could make an argument that the worst medicine came first, right?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- market breadth
- speculative selloff
- fed rate cuts
- labor market softness
- cyclical leadership
Companies and tickers mentioned
- RILY
- Carson Group
- B. Riley Wealth Management
- CWM, LLC
Watch the episode
Watch “Wrapping Up 2025 with Art Hogan, the Boston GOAT (Ep. 167)” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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