Episode summary
Midyear Market Outlook '25 (Ep. 143)
Facts vs Feelings
· · 51 min · Hosts: Ryan Detrick, Sonu Varghese
Summary
The hosts argued that 2025 has been defined by an early tariff shock, a fast reversal, and a market that rebounded far more quickly than many expected. One host said the biggest surprise was Liberation Day tariffs and the speed at which they were paused, while the other said the bigger surprise was how surprised investors were by volatility. They pointed to the S&P 500’s sharp spring drawdown and subsequent rally as evidence that the market has already lived through a major stress test.
On the economic side, they said recession risks remain contained because the data have not turned decisively lower. They emphasized that the NBER’s recession indicators do not currently point to contraction, and their proprietary leading economic index still suggests growth below trend rather than recession. A jobs report showing 147,000 payroll gains, a 4.1% unemployment rate, and easing wage growth was presented as consistent with an economy that is slowing, but still expanding.
Policy was framed as a tug of war between fiscal support and monetary restraint. The hosts said the new tax-and-spending bill should widen deficits and support profits, while tariffs act like a tax and keep the Fed on hold longer. They still see stocks as the better risk asset, expect more upside from earnings, and favor diversification across regions and asset classes, including treasuries, gold, commodities, and managed futures.
Key takeaways
- The hosts still expect the S&P 500 to finish 2025 up 12% to 15%, despite the spring selloff.
- They said the economy is growing below trend, but their recession indicators and leading index do not point to an actual recession.
- The hosts think fiscal deficits should support corporate profits, while tariffs mainly matter because they delay Fed cuts and keep rates elevated.
- They said the market’s recovery has been driven by continued earnings growth, with 2026 S&P 500 profit expectations still around 13% to 13.5% growth.
- They favor diversification, with more balanced exposure across U.S. and international equities plus defensive assets like treasuries and gold.
Notable quotes
“I have two surprises. One is liberation day was a surprise”
“the data hasn't turned”
“Not a single one right now is pointing to a recession”
“It takes a lot to break a bull market”
How the episode opens
Welcome to the Facts Versus Feelings podcast. I'm your host Ryan Dietrich and I'm joined by my co-host Sonu Vargis. Cutting through the noise in 30 minutes each week with Ryan Dietrich, chief market strategist and Sona Vargis, VP global macro strategist.
Taking out the boring and helping investors focus on what really matters. A quick note before we start the show. Investment advisory services offered through CWM LLC, an SEC registered investment adviser.
Carson Partners, a division of CWM LLC, is a nationwide partnership of adviserss. We've officially made it to the middle of the year. Everyone, welcome to Facts Versus Feelings, episode 143.
Ryan and Sonu here. Sonu, this one is titled exciting midyear market outlook 2025. First things first, show your fingers on the YouTube channel.
Son, did we survive? We made We made Yeah. Yes.
July 4th. All 10. We made it.
You know, there was a house. I mean, gee, from where I live, I'm going to say four away that like at 12:30 at night on the night of July 4th, actually have their garage burned down. So, I don't know if it was fire I don't know if it was fireworks related, but that's a big coincidence if if if nothing else.
How was your holiday? It was great. It was tiring.
I was sick before the holiday, so I was hoping I would make it in time to get to the beach on July 4th morning. That happened and it just got so hot and yeah, I've got bit of a tan if you don't notice, but it's hard to tell. Um, no, I was talking about you with some buddies.
I said, you know, he's he's my he's he's my brother from another mother, my Indian buddy. I said, but he hates the heat.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- midyear market outlook 2025
- tariff volatility
- investor sentiment
- fed rate outlook
- market resilience
Watch the episode
Watch “Midyear Market Outlook '25 (Ep. 143)” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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Facts vs Feelings, this episode and its artwork belong to Carson Investment Research. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
