Episode summary
Is Reacceleration in the Cards? (Ep. 165)
Facts vs Feelings
· · Hosts: Ryan Detrick, Sonu Varghese
Summary
The hosts argue that the recent rise in global yields looks more like a growth signal than an inflation alarm. U.S. 10-year yields rose from 3.99% on November 26 to about 4.17%, while Japanese and German yields also moved higher, and Sonu says the move is being driven by rising real yields rather than rising breakeven inflation expectations. That, in their view, points to a possible reacceleration in growth rather than a new inflation panic.
They also frame the market as broadening out beyond the mega-cap tech trade. Technology has rebounded, but financials, industrials, energy, transports, micro caps, and even European equities are all showing strength, while utilities have been hit by higher rates. The guest says commodities are breaking out too, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index up 13% since August, though oil has not joined the rally.
On the macro side, the hosts say inflation is still sticky enough to keep the Fed cautious, even as labor data softens. Core PCE remains uncomfortably high, services inflation is still elevated, and labor-market indicators show low hiring but also low firing. That mix, they argue, supports a Fed cut now and possibly more cuts in 2026, even if the bigger risk is that a stronger economy keeps inflation closer to 3% than 2%.
Key takeaways
- The guest says higher U.S. and foreign yields look more like a growth story than an inflation scare because real yields are rising while breakeven inflation is still near the Fed’s target.
- The hosts say the yield curve is steepening in a bearish way, with long rates rising faster than short rates as the market prices better growth and near-term Fed cuts.
- They argue market leadership is broadening beyond tech, with financials, industrials, energy, transports, micro caps, and European stocks all participating.
- The guest says commodities are breaking out even without oil, which supports the reacceleration theme but could also keep inflation closer to 3% next year.
- They say the labor market is weak enough for the Fed to keep cutting because hiring is soft, but layoffs remain low and consumer income is still growing faster than inflation.
Notable quotes
“I don't think at least I this Wait, wait, wait. This time I said slightly different”
“But if you look at, you know, and this is where you can look at market expectations of inflation based on the difference between nominal yields and real yields, real yields measured by Treasury inflation protected securities”
“the Bloomberg commodity index is up 13% since August”
“There were no hires. There were no layoffs. The Nothing happened”
“Disposable income up 4.6% 6% annualized over the last 3 months, right”
How the episode opens
Welcome to the Facts Versus Feelings podcast. I'm your host, Ryan Dietrich, and I'm joined by my co-host, Sonu Vargis. Cutting through the noise each week with Ryan Dietrich, chief market strategist, and Sona Vargis, VP, global macro strategist.
Taking out the boring and helping investors focus on what really matters. A quick note before we start the show. Investment advisory services offered through CWM LLC, an SEC registered investment adviser.
Carson Partners, a division of CWM LLC is a nationwide partnership of adviserss. And we are back. Episode 165 of Carson's Facts Versus Feelings.
Ryan and Sonu here. Sonu, we've got some uh I don't know, some fun stuff to talk about. We're hearing this theme.
Oh, there's a lot of stuff in this theme coming up. We're calling this one is reaceleration in the cards. And there's a lot of things that that could uh could mean.
First things first, I was out in Arizona last week. Like I mentioned, had a really nice time. It was nice to see the sun.
We don't see the sun in Ohio. Do you see the sun in Chicago anymore? We don't We don't have It's gone.
It's gone from like November through March. That's it. You know, you have to decamp for the south somewhere like the birds.
Yes. Yes. Well, that's uh we were just talking um before we started.
You and I both have a good amount of travel coming up. I know you go don't you go you going to Yuma? Are you going to Yuma, Arizona?
I'm going to Yuma in uh goodness. When is that? January or hopefully January.
No, February. February. I'm going to Palm Springs.
I've never been there. Then I'm driving to Yuma. I've never been there.
So, first for me, you've been there the last couple of years, right?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- market reacceleration
- global yields
- yield curve steepening
- market breadth and sector rotation
- inflation and fed cuts
Watch the episode
Watch “Is Reacceleration in the Cards? (Ep. 165)” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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