Episode summary
What Goes Around...and Up, Up, Up (Ep. 145)
Facts vs Feelings
· · 42 min · Hosts: Ryan Detrick, Sonu Varghese
Summary
Stocks were at fresh highs because earnings have started solidly and forward profit expectations keep rising. The host said about 83% of companies had beaten on revenue and earnings, while a guest noted that roughly 63 S&P 500 companies had reported, with average sales surprises near 2% and earnings surprises around 7.7%.
The episode focused heavily on Jerome Powell, possible political pressure on the Fed, and what tariffs mean for inflation. The guest argued that tariff effects are showing up more as a one-time price shock than as sustained inflation, but said the Fed is stuck because cutting rates into still-elevated core PCE would look bad if inflation re-accelerates. Both hosts pointed to softer shelter, airfare, and hotel data as disinflationary, while also noting tariff-sensitive pockets like household goods, groceries, and restaurants.
Market internals stayed constructive: cyclicals, high beta, industrials, financials, and technology were leading, sentiment was not extreme, and the S&P 500 had closed above its 20-day moving average for 60 straight sessions. The guest also described a wave of meme-stock and options-driven trading, with gamma squeezes in names like OpenDoor, alongside renewed risk appetite in crypto-linked stocks.
Key takeaways
- The host said earnings are supporting the rally, with about 83% of companies beating and forward profit margins at new cycle highs.
- The guest argued tariffs are acting more like a one-time tax on prices than a persistent inflation engine, even as some goods and food categories heat up.
- The host said the Powell drama briefly hit stocks and rates, but the bond market’s reaction suggested lower short rates and higher long rates if Trump forced a change.
- The guest said shelter, airfare, and hotel prices are disinflationary enough that headline inflation looks far less threatening than feared three months ago.
- The host said the S&P 500’s 60-day streak above its 20-day moving average points to unusually persistent buying pressure and historically higher prices ahead.
- The guest said meme-stock trading is back in force, with options flow and gamma squeezes driving huge intraday reversals in names like OpenDoor.
Notable quotes
“the S&P 500 fell 0.8% the Russell 2000 fell 1.4%. Both recovered you know once Trump pulled things back”
“I think it is a one time, but then optics are horrible”
“there are big disinflationary forces. What are those? One is shelter disinflation”
“The S&P 500 has closed above its short-term 20-day moving average 60 days in a row”
“This is a little tiny, you know, whatever the company does, right? And on Monday, by the way, more calls were traded on Openoro than on Tesla and Nvidia combined”
How the episode opens
Welcome to the Facts Versus Feelings podcast. I'm your host, Ryan Dietrich, and I'm joined by my co-host, Sonu Vargis. Cutting through the noise in 30 minutes each week with Ryan Dietrich, chief market strategist, and Sona Vargis, VP, global macro strategist.
Taking out the boring and helping investors focus on what really matters. A quick note before we start the show. Investment Advisory Services offered through CWM LLC, an SEC registered investment advisor.
Carson Partners, a division of CWM LLC, is a nationwide partnership of adviserss. Everybody, here's a little intro for this week's podcast. We just heard the news about Azie Osborne.
Obviously, listen to his podcast. We're fans of rock and roll, fans of music. Uh Sonu said he has a new guitar.
You're going to honor Azie for a second, right Sonu?
Yeah. Yeah. And we were just talking about them about Aussie and that whole thing, the concert with Josh Brown and Michael Baffnik back in New York a couple of weeks ago. So, wow. — Yeah. — 76 years young. So, I think I I don't Are you going crazy train or what? What are we going with here, son?
Let's try that. that little bit. — That was good. We heard a rumor you have to go under 17 seconds not to pay a royalty. I think you went 16.8 seconds to avoid any royalties. So anyway, so that's a a shame. Good one is lost. But with all of that, there's
Rest in peace, Aussie. — Rest in peace, Aussie. And here comes episode 145 of Carson's Facts Versus Feelings. Enjoy it everyone. Thank you. And we're back. Episode 145 of Carson's Facts Versus Feelings. So no, apparently Coldplay is still a band. They are selling tickets like crazy after what we saw go viral.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- fed tenure
- trump impact
- jerome powell
- inflation surprise
- interest rate expectations
Watch the episode
Watch “What Goes Around...and Up, Up, Up (Ep. 145)” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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Facts vs Feelings, this episode and its artwork belong to Carson Investment Research. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
