Episode summary
Here Comes the Year-End Rally (Ep. 159)
Facts vs Feelings
· · Hosts: Ryan Detrick, Sonu Varghese
Summary
The hosts argue that a year-end rally is already underway and that the setup into November and December remains unusually favorable. They point to seasonality, a recent pickup in momentum, a VIX spike that flushed out weaker hands, and the fact that the S&P 500 is still up strongly on the year. The hosts also emphasize that broad participation has improved, with equal-weight indexes for the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all hitting all-time highs and small caps breaking out.
Earnings are another major support. The guest says roughly 87% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings expectations and that revenue beats have also been strong, which suggests the bar was high but companies are still clearing it. The hosts say sentiment remains skeptical, with more bears than bulls in surveys, which they think leaves room for a chase into year end.
On inflation and policy, the guest says September CPI was hotter than the Fed’s target but cooler than feared, with core CPI up 0.23% month over month and shelter still slowing. He argues that tariffs are showing up in core goods, while core services remain sticky, and concludes that 3% inflation may be the new 2%. With the Fed expected to keep cutting and policy potentially moving below 3% in 2026, the hosts see more tailwinds for stocks.
Key takeaways
- The host says November and December have historically been strong for equities, especially after a year like 2025 where the S&P 500 is already up sharply.
- The guest says about 87% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings expectations, with revenue beats also running unusually strong.
- The hosts say equal-weight indexes across the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq hitting all-time highs is evidence the rally is broader than mega-cap tech.
- The guest says September core CPI rose 0.23% month over month, which annualizes to 2.8%, still sticky but better than feared.
- The guest expects the Fed to keep cutting and sees policy potentially falling below 3% in 2026, which he считает bullish for stocks.
- The hosts say U.S.-China trade progress on tariffs and rare earths adds another tailwind, even if the deal details remain uncertain.
Notable quotes
“we think there's a year rally coming”
“87% beat on earnings. One of the best numbers we've seen in a long long time”
“3% is a new 2%, but that's not all”
How the episode opens
Welcome to the Facts Versus Feelings podcast. I'm your host Ryan Dietrich and I'm joined by my co-host Sonu Vargis. Cutting through the noise in 30 minutes each week with Ryan Dietrich, chief market strategist and Sona Vargis, VP global macro strategist.
Taking out the boring and helping investors focus on what really matters. A quick note before we start the show. Investment advisory services offered through CWM LLC, an SEC registered investment adviser.
Carson Partners, a division of CWM LLC, is a nationwide partnership of adviserss. And we're back. Episode 159, Carson's Facts Versus Feeling.
Soon for the YouTube channel, can you show us all your fingers? Did you survive the fireworks? There all 10.
All 10. All 10 fingers. So, give us the the quick summary.
You already told me a little bit. You almost had an episode. An an issue.
An issue. Um, how's the fireworks? How' the fireworks go?
Oh, it was wild. It was wild. You know, you want to set money on fire.
You know the term set money on fire. This is if you want to set money on fire, fireworks is the way to do it. There you go.
And uh it was a tussle. My wife was like, why are you buying so much? I was like, I'm not buying enough.
And during the thing eventually, like this is for the kids. We're doing a Diwali celebration at home. you have a, you know, nice area at the back where there's enough room to do a lot of fireworks without, you know, getting busted by the neighbors and Chicago police and, you know, so it's all but yeah.
No, you know, the kids, our kids are like 9year-old and their friends are there and, you know, they're lightning, they're lighting these sparklers and like, "Hey, can you put point the sparklers away from everyone else's body?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- year-end rally
- market seasonality
- earnings strength
- inflation trends
- fed rate cuts
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Carson Group
Watch the episode
Watch “Here Comes the Year-End Rally (Ep. 159)” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
More from Facts vs Feelings
Facts vs Feelings, this episode and its artwork belong to Carson Investment Research. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
