The Return of Economic Populism and the End of Two Percent | Vincent Deluard

Vincent Deluard argues that the midterm results were not just a political swing but evidence of a deeper global shift toward economic populism and class-based politics. He says the election showed the declining power of money in campaigns, the fading salience of cultural issues, and a growing public focus on prices, corruption, and affordability. In his view, this is a broader rejection of the status quo and a sign that left-wing populism is gaining strength while antiwar sentiment remains a major force in US politics.

He also argues that the developed world is moving away from the old 2% inflation regime. According to Vincent, fiscal dominance and structurally larger deficits make higher inflation more likely, while central banks are increasingly forced to accommodate politics rather than fight it. He says inflation is becoming harder to measure because subscriptions, personalized pricing, and service-heavy consumption weaken the link between what people consume and what they pay.

From there, Vincent turns to currency and capital-flow dynamics. He sees the Mexican peso’s earlier strength reversing as growth slows, carry trades unwind, and trade and migration flows weaken. By contrast, he thinks Canada is becoming stronger as it seeks to repatriate capital and invest at home, while France represents the most serious European risk because debt, deficits, political fragmentation, and anti-establishment pressures are converging toward a more serious eurozone stress event.