Episode summary
Nvidia Says $1T Is Coming — The Market Isn’t Buying It | Prof G Markets
Prof G Markets
· · 29 min · Hosts: Ed Elson, Scott Galloway · Guests: Gil Luria, Alice Han
Summary
Nvidia’s GTC conference was the first major focus, with Jensen Huang’s claim that the company expects at least $1 trillion in revenue from Blackwell and Rubin chips through 2027. Gil Luria argued the number is real and that investors’ muted reaction says more about skepticism toward the next phase of data center spending than about Nvidia itself. He said the market seems to be pricing in a 2026 peak in the buildout, even as he believes AI demand from consumers and enterprises will require more infrastructure.
The discussion also treated physical AI and robotics as a later stage of the cycle, not the immediate driver. Luria said robots and autonomous systems could extend the AI wave from white-collar automation into blue-collar work, but that timeline is still years away. He also said Nvidia is extending its lead over AMD and Broadcom by incorporating Grock technology into its systems, and that the stock still looks attractive at 21 times earnings.
Later, Alice Han argued that China has leverage over Iran because it buys more than 90% of Iran’s oil exports, but she said Beijing has little intention to directly help Washington secure the Strait of Hormuz. She said China may instead use the conflict to deepen ties with Gulf states while remaining cautious on Taiwan. Ed closed with a warning that the war is feeding U.S. inflation through higher oil, gas, freight, fertilizer, and construction costs, raising the risk of stagflation.
Key takeaways
- Gil Luria said Nvidia’s $1 trillion revenue outlook is credible, but the market’s weak reaction suggests investors doubt 2026 data center spending can keep accelerating.
- Luria said Nvidia’s physical AI story is compelling but later-cycle, with robotics and autonomous systems still several years away.
- Luria argued Nvidia is widening its lead over AMD and Broadcom by using Grock technology to improve token output and lower total cost of ownership.
- Alice Han said China has real leverage over Iran because it buys more than 90% of Iranian oil exports, but Beijing is unlikely to help the U.S. secure Hormuz directly.
- Ed said the Iran war is already pushing up U.S. inflation via oil, gasoline, diesel, freight, fertilizer, and construction costs, creating stagflation risk.
Notable quotes
“Nvidia expects at least $1 trillion in revenue from Blackwell and Reuben chips through 2027”
“Investors don't believe the great data center build that will continue into next year”
“physical AI and robotics are about uh extending the productivity of blue collar workers”
“with this round of inflation, there is essentially no place to hide”
How the episode opens
Today's number, 887 million. That's how many dollars Warner Brothers Discovery CEO David Zazloff is expected to receive when he sells the company to Paramount. During his tenure, Zazloff was responsible for instant classics such as Magic Mike's Last Dance and Joker part two, but he will always be remembered for his true crowning achievement, Riri rebranding to HBO Max.
Welcome to Profit Markets. I'm Edson. It is March 18th.
Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. The major indices posted modest gains. The price of oil climbed higher as President Trump slammed allies for not helping him fight the war in Iran and reopen the Strait of Hummus.
And finally, bond yields fell ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision due later today. Okay, what else is happening? Nvidia expects at least $1 trillion in revenue from Blackwell and Reuben chips through 2027.
That is the headline news out of the company's GTC conference, also known as the Super Bowl of AI, which kicked off this week. In his keynote on Monday, CEO Jensen Huang pitched a future where Nvidia powers not just chat bots and data centers, but also robots, factories, and autonomous machines in the physical world. Nvidia's stock is up nearly 1 and a half% since his speech.
Lots more to unpack from this conference. So, here to discuss all of it, we're speaking with our friend Gil Lura, head of technology research at DAD Davidson. Gil, good to have you on the show.
I think we have to start with this $1 trillion number that is making all the headlines. One trillion in chip sales through 2027. That's what Jensen Huang believes.
Give us your views on that number. Is that a real number or is that just a headline? No, it's a real number.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- nvidia gtc
- ai valuation
- china iran war
- inflation impact
Companies and tickers mentioned
- NVDA
- Nvidia
Watch the episode
Watch “Nvidia Says $1T Is Coming — The Market Isn’t Buying It | Prof G Markets” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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