Episode summary
Gold's Violent Reversal: How Far Does Rally Go? | Gary Wagner
The David Lin Report
· · 30 min · Hosts: David Lin · Guests: Gary Wagner
Summary
Gary Wagner argues that gold’s violent correction was deep but not necessarily the end of the broader uptrend. He says the metal’s pullback from the highs was roughly a one-third retracement, which is severe but still different from the multi-year collapse seen in 2011-2015. In his view, the current market is being driven less by simple inflation logic and more by shifting Fed expectations, oil prices, and forced liquidation across asset classes.
Wagner says the usual relationships have flipped: higher inflation expectations have recently pressured gold because traders assume the Fed may raise rates, and that is “poison for gold prices.” He also says falling oil and lower Treasury yields have mattered, but not in a clean textbook way, because professional traders may be selling gold to cover margin calls and preserve liquidity. He sees $4,000 as an important support area and says a close above resistance tied to Fibonacci retracement levels would improve the technical picture.
For investors, Wagner favors holding through volatility if gold is part of a long-term allocation, using incremental buying rather than trying to time a bottom. He says the near-term outlook depends on whether gold can reclaim higher resistance, while very bearish or very bullish outcomes would depend on broader economic stress, war risk, and policy developments.
Key takeaways
- Gary Wagner says gold has suffered a deep correction, but he still sees the market as ultimately bullish over the long run.
- Wagner says higher inflation expectations have recently been bearish for gold because traders expect the Fed to raise rates.
- He identifies $4,000 as a key support area and says a closing break above the next resistance zone would improve the trend.
- Wagner expects $4,400 as the next solid upside target if gold breaks higher on a closing basis.
- For long-term holders, Wagner prefers dollar-cost averaging over trying to trade every swing.
- Wagner says a decline in oil and Treasury yields has not translated into a simple safe-haven bid for gold because liquidation and margin pressure can dominate.
Notable quotes
“We're certainly not out of the water yet, but this is a good start to moving back into uh a bullish market sentiment”
“I am personally under the belief, and our technical studies, I believe, confirms that that we did experience a deep correction”
“higher inflation expectations, took gold lower, and the reason being because they took in what the Fed will do, which is to raise rates, and that's poison for gold prices”
“We're certainly not out of the water yet, but this is a good start to moving back into uh a bullish market sentiment”
“The first achievable number, it might take two years to go, but it's not yet ridiculous, is 4750”
How the episode opens
We're certainly not out of the water yet, but this is a good start to moving back into uh a bullish market sentiment. These tops up here, mark my word, they will get hit again.
What do you think will happen to gold in 2027? Gary Wagner, editor of the gold forecast.com, is back. Now, gold's been soaring higher.
Its low was November 1st, down to almost $3,800. Now it's back up to 48 or 4,100 rather $4,100 and change. Gary's going to give us his outlook and whether or not this rally means the beginning of the end of the bare market gold experience pretty much all year since the end of January.
Importantly, anything changed fundamentally with gold after the midterm elections? We'll find out. Gary, welcome back.
Good to see you.
Thanks. Thanks for having me. And it's such an interesting time.
You and I, we've watched gold for decades. We've seen tremendous moves, but I haven't seen this kind of almost whipssaw action. That's not only whipssaw with extend it's whipssaw with extended rallies and extended corrections.
Now, it's nothing like we saw in 2011 where it uh meandered between 1900 and 2000 and then when it broke below two 1900 and flirted around 1,800, no one knew where it would go. It would take 5 years, a multi-year correction, and it didn't stop to a thousand. I am personally under the belief, and our technical studies, I believe, confirms that that we did experience a deep correction.
About a third of the price of gold per ounce came off the top. But that's nothing like we saw when the price of gold was half back in 2011 to 13 through 2015. Well, is there anything with the uh Democrats now controlling both chambers of Congress that may shift the macro fundamentals in favor for gold?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- gold price technical levels
- inflation
- oil prices
- federal reserve policy
- interest rates
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Monetary Metals
- The Gold Forecast
Watch the episode
Watch “Gold's Violent Reversal: How Far Does Rally Go? | Gary Wagner” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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