Episode summary
Buy The Dip Or Short? Trader Reveals Key Signals | Jason Shapiro
The David Lin Report
· · 41 min · Hosts: David Lin · Guests: Jason Shapiro
Summary
Jason Shapiro argues the recent tech selloff is not just another routine dip because positioning and sentiment have changed. He says a lot of weak longs in names like Apple, CoreWeave, ARM, Western Digital, and Intel were forced out, which can create a sharp rebound, but he still sees this setup as less attractive for dip-buying than prior corrections because the consensus has shifted toward buying rather than panic selling.
He distinguishes between the market and the tech complex, saying the S&P 500 is only down about 3.5% while many individual tech stocks have fallen 50% to 70%. In his view, that is why the index has held up better than the headlines suggest, and why rotation between Nasdaq strength and Dow weakness can persist as money stays in the market and moves around.
On other assets, Shapiro says Bitcoin has no major positioning edge right now and that crypto sentiment is hard to trust because permabulls are always bullish. He is more constructive on metals, especially gold and silver, and says he is watching the dollar, euro, and Aussie dollar positioning for a possible setup that could help precious metals. On bonds, he says he was wrong to call for weakness at the October lows, but still expects lower bond prices eventually.
Key takeaways
- Shapiro says the tech selloff created a reset because many weak longs were forced out of crowded names like Apple, CoreWeave, ARM, Western Digital, and Intel.
- He thinks this dip is less attractive than earlier ones because the consensus has shifted toward buying the dip, not panic selling.
- He argues the S&P 500 being only down about 3.5% means the broader index has not broken down, even though several tech stocks have fallen 50% to 70%.
- Shapiro says Bitcoin has no clear positioning edge right now and that crypto sentiment is unreliable because permabulls stay bullish in every scenario.
- He is starting to like gold and silver more because metals positioning is improving and the dollar complex may be setting up for a move that would help them.
- He says he was wrong on bonds at the October lows, but still expects lower yields eventually and is not eager to own bonds here.
Notable quotes
“This one's different from my point of view because of the positioning thing”
“I would say is not as good a riskreward this time as it was the other times”
“I don't think it's actually hit 8,000”
How the episode opens
This just another squeeze in a bare market or is this the start of the next leg of the bull market? This one's different from my point of view because of the positioning thing and because I think that a lot of the consensus seems to be that you buy the dip here and it was not during those other ones.
So buying the dip seems safer compared to previous times. Is that the summary? We're back with Jason Shapiro, founder of the crowded market report.
Jason looks at positioning data and how are markets and investors positioned now. I think the big question on people's mind is after last week's brutal tech selloff, is it safe to be buying the dip now? While the stock market is up as we speak, the S&P 500 is up about 1%.
The NASDAQ's up 1.5%. Uh but Jason's going to talk to us about why this time may be different. And uh we're going to take a look now also at positioning for uh the prediction markets.
Right now, Kowi traders have a 30% chance that the S&P 500 will get to 8,000 or above this year. The S&P has not gotten to 8,000 ever. So, this would be a new high for the S&P.
And there's only a 30% chance that it's going to happen according to traders on Koshi right now. That's only 5% away. Jason's going to explain his rationale for why the odds may be this low despite it only being a 5% move from here.
Uh, but if you do agree with these odds, a $50 trade could yield a payout of $148 if you're correct. This video is sponsored by Koshi. It's the biggest prediction market in the United States.
And unlike a sports book, you're trading peer-to-peer on real world events from economic data to political outcomes.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- tech stock selloff
- market rebound
- trader positioning
- bitcoin sentiment
- interest rate outlook
Watch the episode
Watch “Buy The Dip Or Short? Trader Reveals Key Signals | Jason Shapiro” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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