Oil Plunges 20%: Is $60 Or $125 Next? | Doomberg

Oil prices fell sharply as the guest argued markets were pricing out the biggest escalation risk in the Middle East, even though shipping frictions and conflict risk were still keeping prices above a normal equilibrium. He put WTI’s rough steady-state range at $80 to $90 a barrel, with downside toward $60 only if peace truly broke out, and upside toward $125 in a catastrophic escalation before demand destruction brought prices back down.

The guest tied the drop in oil and diesel to broader inflation relief, arguing that diesel matters more than headline oil because it flows through transport and goods prices. He was skeptical of official inflation expectations and said the big watch item is whether diesel crack spreads continue to retreat. He also said Chris Wright’s view that gasoline and diesel have peaked and should keep falling is broadly right if war risks do not re-escalate.

On policy, he argued that the midterms and the lame-duck session could accelerate permitting reform, which would benefit data centers, natural gas, oil, and renewables by making development faster. He said the real energy race is for the fastest available power, not the cheapest, and that natural gas is the clear winner. He also warned that the Iran war has worsened Ukraine’s position by splitting limited Western missile stocks across two fronts.