Episode summary
Bond Yields Spike Again: Brace For Bigger Shock | Peter Boockvar
The David Lin Report
· · Hosts: David Lin · Guests: Peter Boockvar
Summary
Peter Boockvar argued that the jump in the 10-year Treasury yield above 5% is being driven by more than just oil: inflation, debt and deficits, heavy bond supply, and financing needs tied to the AI buildout. He said the latest CPI print likely locks in a December Fed hike, but he sees the central bank as being in a “rate tweaking” phase rather than a full tightening cycle.
He expects rates to stay elevated and trend higher over time, with the long end of the curve still vulnerable if fiscal deficits widen or if AI spending slows and pushes the economy toward recession. At the same time, he thinks the AI capex boom is approaching a peak around 2027, with pressure from shareholders, higher funding costs, and possible restrictions on data centers eventually forcing a slowdown.
On Nvidia, Boockvar said Jensen Huang’s departure would be a major loss and that the company will remain strong but less exceptional under new leadership. He also favored commodities, especially energy and precious metals, but said gold remains tied to real rates and the dollar. Outside tech, he liked consumer staples as a cheap defensive area.
Key takeaways
- Boockvar expects a December Fed hike and thinks the CPI print mostly confirmed that move rather than forcing a bigger immediate shift.
- He believes the 10-year Treasury yield can still trend higher over time because deficits, bond supply, and AI-related financing needs are all adding pressure.
- Boockvar said the AI capex cycle could peak around 2027, and that slowing spend would matter for GDP, inflation, and stock-market leadership.
- He views Jensen Huang as unusually difficult to replace and thinks Nvidia will remain important but less dominant without him.
- He likes commodities and still has about a third of his portfolio in commodity-related assets, including energy, precious metals, uranium, and fertilizer stocks.
- Boockvar said consumer staples look attractive because they are cheap after years of underperformance and may be bottoming fundamentally.
Notable quotes
“So that's why it seems that they're going to hike in December. But I'm still of the belief that the Fed is more in a rate tweaking cycle”
Topics
- treasury yields
- fed rate outlook
- ai spending
- nvidia leadership
- gold and commodities
Companies and tickers mentioned
- NVDA
- One Point BFG Wealth Partners
- Nvidia
- CoreWeave
Watch the episode
Watch “Bond Yields Spike Again: Brace For Bigger Shock | Peter Boockvar” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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