Episode summary
Rubenstein on the Anthropic IPO, Nvidia CEO Scandal, GTA VI
The David Rubenstein Show
· · 8 min · Hosts: David Rubenstein
Summary
David Rubenstein says the Anthropic IPO is likely to get done at a very high valuation, even if the number has come down from the roughly $2,000,000,000,000 level he thinks was possible earlier. He expects something closer to $1,300,000,000,000, and argues that the market is willing to reward growth and potential even when a company is not yet profitable. He also says the deal will likely be massively oversubscribed, but that this is often more about expectations than true demand at the full headline level.
He sees the IPO market staying open enough for a few more important listings, though he expects it to thin out into December and pick up again early next year, with OpenAI possibly among the next wave. More broadly, he says the market has accepted that major AI companies such as Anthropic and OpenAI can command huge valuations without earnings, much like earlier generations once did with Amazon.
On Nvidia and Jensen Huang, Rubenstein says he would be surprised if Huang were forced out, given how central he is to building the company. He expects investigations and perhaps more limits on his power, but not removal. He also argues that backlash against AI data centers and exports may slow growth somewhat, even if the long-term trend remains intact because the U.S. does not want to fall behind other countries.
Key takeaways
- Rubenstein expects the Anthropic IPO to price at about $1,300,000,000,000, down from an earlier $2,000,000,000,000 view, but still at a very high valuation.
- He says Anthropic could be massively oversubscribed, though that can reflect limited allocation rather than true demand for the full amount.
- Rubenstein thinks the IPO market will remain workable, with OpenAI likely waiting until next year and December acting as a seasonal slowdown.
- He expects Jensen Huang to remain Nvidia CEO, even if investigations lead to tighter constraints or a separation of roles.
- He believes backlash to AI data centers may slow announcements and approvals, but not stop the long-term buildout.
- Rubenstein says Grand Theft Auto VI could materially lift Take-Two because the franchise has enormous global reach.
Notable quotes
“The Anthropic deal was originally going to go at something like closer to $2,000,000,000,000”
“it's more likely to go to about $1,300,000,000,000 but that's still a very, very high valuation”
“they don't make money. Certainly, Anthropic is not making money right now and and OpenAI, I don't believe makes money either”
“I'd be very, very surprised if in the end the CEO is not going to be the CEO in the future”
“Grand Theft Auto six is coming out with the most hype of any video game ever in history”
How the episode opens
Let's stay there. The Anthropic IPO roadshow underway. Sources telling us here at Bloomberg, the offering is multiple times oversubscribed with public trading expected to begin next week.
David Rubenstein of The Carlyle Group, I am so pleased to say, joins us now, for more. David, so good to see you. Thank you for being with us.
I wanna start with the capital market cycle with the anthropic IPO likely to price next week. Where do you see us in this capital market cycle right now? Well, clearly, the IPO is gonna get done and get done at a very, very high valuation.
I think only probably the the deal that was higher was the SpaceX valuation. The Anthropic deal was originally going to go at something like closer to $2,000,000,000,000 I think because a lot of other things going on in the market, it's more likely to go to about $1,300,000,000,000 but that's still a very, very high valuation. And it's a company doesn't earn any money, but still it does has great potential.
So it'll be massively oversubscribed, but people should remember that when people want to buy stock and something hot like this, they ask for more than they expect to get. So when something is double, triple, or quadruple oversubscribed, it's not because people really expect to get four times or three times what they what they ask for. They expect to get a, you know, a fraction of it, and that's why it's often massively oversubscribed.
I'm so glad that you sort of cast some reality on all of these headlines where typically we get for some of these hot deals, the multiple oversubscribed type of rhetoric. Do you think that the IPO window is likely to close or at least narrow substantially after this particular deal gets done?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- anthropic ipo
- ai valuation
- nvidia scandal
- gta vi
- executive leadership
Companies and tickers mentioned
- NVDA
- CG
- Anthropic
- Nvidia
- The Carlyle Group
Watch the episode
Watch “Rubenstein on the Anthropic IPO, Nvidia CEO Scandal, GTA VI” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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