Episode summary
Exor NV: A Way to Buy Ferrari at a 50% Discount?
The Intrinsic Value Podcast
· · 1 hr 13 min · Hosts: Shawn O'Malley, Daniel Mahncke
Summary
The discussion argues that Exor NV offers a rare way to buy exposure to Ferrari and other quality assets at an unusually steep discount to net asset value. The hosts frame Exor as a family-controlled holding company, comparable in structure to Berkshire Hathaway, with Ferrari as its crown jewel and a stake that effectively gives Exor control over about 30% of the business through enhanced voting rights.
They break down why the stock trades around a 60% discount to its roughly €36 billion NAV, even though the market capitalization is only about €15 billion. The explanation combines a mixed portfolio, frictional costs, taxes, family control, and skepticism about whether management can keep compounding capital. The portfolio is eclectic: Ferrari, Stellantis, CNH, Philips, The Economist, Juventus, luxury-linked assets, and newer venture-style investments.
A key debate is whether Exor’s discount is justified or excessive. The hosts note that Exor’s NAV has compounded strongly over time, that the company has been buying back stock aggressively, and that its 2024 move to classify itself as an investment company should make reporting clearer. Still, they worry that selling Ferrari to fund new investments could dilute the appeal of the story and keep the discount wide.
Key takeaways
- Exor trades at about a 60% discount to an estimated €36 billion NAV, even though Ferrari alone is worth more than the stock market value of the whole company.
- The hosts argue Exor is structurally closer to a holding company than an operating business, with Ferrari the largest and most important asset.
- The market discount reflects concerns about capital allocation, portfolio complexity, taxes, and whether management can outperform the underlying holdings.
- Exor’s buybacks, including a reverse Dutch auction, are presented as shareholder-friendly and potentially accretive at this discount.
- The 2024 shift to investment-company accounting should improve transparency, but the hosts do not think it has changed the market’s view yet.
Notable quotes
“you might understand Exor as almost being the Birkshshire Hathway of Italy”
“Exer as a holding company trades at a 60% discount to its net asset value”
“At exer, when we think about our portfolio's composition, we like concentration because it encourages us to remain focused on what matters, but we also recognize that we need some balance”
“the new reporting standard better reflects Exer's reality as an investment holding company whose activity is limited to participating in companies without interfering in and managing their operations”
How the episode opens
Ferrari is one of the most special brands in the world. It's the epitome of Italian excellence, craftsmanship, and engineering. And it has been an incredible stock to own, too. Even though the stock itself is not priced cheaply, what if I told you there was a way for us to legitimately gain exposure to the company at something like half price? I mean, what would you say to that?
Well, I would say that sounds too good to be true, but also very compelling. And today, that's exactly what we will be exploring with XR NB, a holding company with a significant stake in Ferrari. We might just be able to bet on Ferrari at a major discount.
In today's episode, we will be covering a new company, but also in a way a business that we have already studied before. Xenv is a Dutch company for tax purposes with a strong Italian roots and it has been run for over a century by the descendants of Giovanni Agnelli who founded Fiat back in 1927. And that makes EXO this weird mix of conglomerate and family office.
It is a public traded company and yet primarily a vehicle for just one family's wealth. And the reason I say that this overlaps with a company that we've dug into previously is that well XO's biggest holding by far is Ferrari, a company we loved when we covered it a few months ago on this show, but the valuation just wasn't something we could get comfortable with. Although we love the company and since then stock has declined by doubledigit percentages.
And then thanks to a listener from the audience after the episode, we came across Exo, which I guess you could say provides a way to own Ferrari stock, but at a massive discount to the stock.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- exor discount to nav
- ferrari stake
- holding company intrinsic value
- investment company reclassification
- intrinsic value portfolio adds
Companies and tickers mentioned
- RACE
- STLA
- CNH
- Exor NV
- Ferrari
- Stellantis
- CNH Industrial
Watch the episode
Watch “Exor NV: A Way to Buy Ferrari at a 50% Discount?” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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The Intrinsic Value Podcast, this episode and its artwork belong to The Investor's Podcast Network. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
