Episode summary
Palantir Stock (PLTR): Palantir is Cheaper than I Thought!
The Intrinsic Value Podcast
· · 1 hr 16 min · Hosts: Daniel Mahncke, Shawn O'Malley
Summary
Palantir is presented as a company the hosts once saw as wildly overvalued, but now view as more attractive because growth has reaccelerated while the valuation multiple has not risen as fast as the business fundamentals. The episode argues that the core product is an ontology layer: software that maps an organization’s scattered systems, data, permissions, and actions into a real-time operating map, especially useful in defense, hospitals, airlines, and large enterprises.
The hosts trace Palantir’s origins to PayPal fraud detection and the post-9/11 need to connect fragmented government data. They argue that the company’s early government focus, heavy use of forward-deployed engineers, and long onboarding cycles made it look like a consulting business for years. AI changed that dynamic by making onboarding easier, expanding use cases, and helping Palantir move from slow growth to roughly 90% top-line growth with very high net retention and margin expansion.
A major theme is whether Palantir’s moat can be copied by Microsoft, Google, ServiceNow, OpenAI, or Anthropic. The hosts contend that switching costs, first-mover advantage, deployment complexity, and the company’s model-agnostic approach make it unusually hard to replicate. They also say international growth is slower than U.S. growth because of European resistance, slower adoption, and Palantir’s hands-on sales model.
Key takeaways
- The hosts say Palantir is no longer just a story stock; its growth reacceleration and margin expansion make it “more attractive than today” despite a still-expensive multiple.
- They argue Palantir’s ontology is the key product advantage because it connects raw data, permissions, and actions across fragmented enterprise systems.
- The episode says AI reduced Palantir’s onboarding friction and helped drive revenue growth from as low as 12% in 2023 to around 90% recently.
- The hosts highlight net dollar retention rising from about 100% in 2023 to almost 160% in the last quarter, showing strong upsell within existing accounts.
- They argue Palantir’s moat comes from switching costs, first-mover advantage, and a hands-on implementation model that rivals would struggle to copy.
- The hosts say Palantir’s U.S. growth is far stronger than international growth, which they attribute to slower European adoption and resistance to U.S. data platforms.
Notable quotes
“I actually believe Palanteer has never been more attractive than today. Well, to be clear, it's far from a value play”
“what Palanteer builds is not only facts. So, you know, the plane's tail number for example or passenger seat, but also the relationship and the actions between all of these things”
“Palanteer basically built the product, their only product just for this one client”
“that metric increased from a low of about 100% in 2023, which basically means they spent as much this year as they have last year to almost 160% in the last quarter”
“Today though, net profit margins are 60% or almost there”
How the episode opens
I saw Palanteer as the poster child of overvalued companies for a long time. And Micah Bur just said that it's not even worth a single dollar. But after looking into it, I actually believe Palanteer has never been more attractive than today.
Well, to be clear, it's far from a value play. But when the facts change, our opinions have to change, too. And last year, Palanteer traded at twice the multiple with half the growth.
And that has completely shifted now.
It did. And today we want to find out whether that's enough for us to invest. And we also want to explain how Palenty actually works and why there's no competitor inside. All right. So where uh where do you want to start? Personally, I I think I could use a brief explanation of what exactly Pounder does. I I can't really say I have a good idea of what they do. It's a very enigmatic company.
Yeah. Before looking at this for the episode, I honestly didn't really know either, but it's quite fascinating. So, to give a first quick example, let's imagine any large organization, right?
It could be an airline, it could be a hospital, it could be a car manufacturer or the army, which is actually a big client, but it could be anything else, too. So, there's always a lot of information in all of these organizations, right? But it's scattered across dozens of separate systems and departments that barely ever talk to each other, at least not efficiently.
And I certainly can say that's the case in Germany, but I think it's also the case in the US. So let's just stick with the example of an airline for now. Assume you have an airplane that runs into technical problems in, let's say, you know, Frankfurt airport, which likely happens again in 2 weeks time when I'm on my way to our intrinsic value conference in New York City.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- palantir ontology
- ai turnaround
- palantir margins
- valuation discussion
- intrinsic value portfolio
Companies and tickers mentioned
- PLTR
- EADSY
- RACE
- Palantir
- Airbus
- Ferrari
Watch the episode
Watch “Palantir Stock (PLTR): Palantir is Cheaper than I Thought!” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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