Episode summary
The Asset That Could Be the Market’s Biggest Mispricing
The Meb Faber Show
· · 37 min · Hosts: Meb Faber · Guests: Dave Iben
Summary
Dave Iben argues that scarcity still matters even in an era of heavy money creation, AI enthusiasm, and record market concentration. He says the money supply and debt have risen dramatically over his lifetime, eroding the dollar’s value, while assets that cannot be printed—gold, oil, copper, uranium, farmland, timber, and other resources—have been systematically underappreciated and mispriced. His core framework is simple: buy scarce assets when they trade below the incentive price needed to bring on new supply, because scarcity eventually forces prices higher.
He also makes the case that the U.S. market is extremely expensive relative to history, while many non-U.S. markets trade at wide discounts despite having solid businesses. He points to South Korea, Kazakhstan, parts of Latin America, and selected Asian markets as places where investors can buy strong companies at much lower valuations than comparable businesses in the U.S. In his view, emotion and crowd psychology create the biggest opportunities.
On AI, Dave says it is real and useful, but not a reason to abandon valuation discipline. He compares today’s market to late-1972 or early-1973: a time when exciting narratives, inflation, and expensive leadership stocks can coexist with very poor forward returns. He expects human judgment and scarcity-based investing to remain valuable, especially when everyone else is chasing the same names.
Key takeaways
- Dave Iben says scarcity wins over time because money printing cannot create more gold, copper, farmland, or uranium, and those assets eventually reprice with inflation.
- He argues the U.S. market is at extreme valuation levels, while many foreign markets offer the same quality of business at a fraction of the price.
- Dave Iben favors commodities only when they trade below the incentive price needed for new supply, because that is when shortages become unavoidable.
- He cites South Korea as an example of a market with good companies trading below book value, including names like Hyundai and LG.
- Dave Iben thinks AI is real but not a substitute for valuation discipline; he believes investors confuse exciting businesses with good investments.
Notable quotes
“Since I was born, I think the money supply has gone up 111 times and the debt's gone up, I think, 135 times”
“We don't just like commodities, we like undervalued commodities that are going to run out if the prices don't rise”
“The US market's the most expensive it's ever been by almost any metric you can name”
“These are wonderful tools. I think they need to be our servant and never our master”
How the episode opens
Since I was born, I think the money supply has gone up 111 times and the debt's gone up, I think, 135 times, i.e. the dollars lost more than 99% of its value. And every one of them was a bubble because bubbles always happen around the real deal.
I like the saying, if we're all playing poker and we look around the table and see who the sucker is and we can't figure it out, we're probably the sucker. Two months in Brazil, the number of people I met that were bullish on their stock market, zero. zero.
So, I was right and still got wiped out.
Welcome back, y'all. Today's guest is David Ivan, co-chief investing officer at Kernick Global Investor, which manages over $10 billion. David, welcome to the show. — Thank you. Great to be here. — You're kind of a world traveler. Where do we find you today?
Only Tampa, Florida, but yes, I have been to 108 countries. I think it is. It's a great world out there. — You travel though like you spend a lot of time on the road. you almost like HQ decamp every year. What's been on the passport in the last year or two?
So, uh 3 weeks ago got back from Brazil where we spent the summer doing research. Perfect timing. Everybody's worried. Oh, what about the crime? I think we had 20some people there for a couple months. No crime, no pickpockets, nothing. So, a little different than what we're led to believe and a lot of bargains.
Here we are in 2026. It feels like the the word cloud, everyone talking about central banks and printing money, but you know, in a world of sort of digital abundance and the infinite can't print a gram of gold or the next uranium mine is does scarcity still matter in 2026?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- scarce assets
- farmland and agricultural assets
- emerging markets
- valuation risk in the s&p 500 and ai stocks
- undervalued commodities and inflation
Watch the episode
Watch “The Asset That Could Be the Market’s Biggest Mispricing” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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It's a Bubble. So Why Is Citi's Dirk Willer Buying? -
Why Governments Are Afraid of the Bond Market (Robin Wigglesworth Explains) -
Why Gold Is Money Again: Rethink Traditional Portfolio
The Meb Faber Show, this episode and its artwork belong to The Idea Farm. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
