Episode summary
"I Sold 50% of My Portfolio. What Now?" (AMA 17) | Rational Reminder 418
The Rational Reminder Podcast
· · 1 hr 16 min · Hosts: Benjamin Felix, Dan Bortolotti, Ben Wilson
Summary
The episode opens with a detailed case of an investor who sold VEQT for cash on bubble fears and now wants back in. The host argues that market timing requires being right twice, that all-time highs are normal, and that high valuations are too noisy to use as a reliable signal for staying out of stocks. On the question of how to re-enter, the hosts note that lump sum investing beats dollar-cost averaging more often than not, even in historically bad entry periods, and they say the most important practical goal is choosing the method that actually gets the investor back into the market.
They also stress that a person who is extremely anxious about getting back in may simply hold too aggressive a portfolio. The hosts discuss related cases like buying the dip and withdrawing cash for a known expense, framing those as liability-matching and behavioral decisions rather than pure return-maximization problems. Across these examples, the recurring argument is that transaction structure matters less than matching the strategy to the investor’s comfort and sticking with it.
The episode then turns to PWL Capital’s investment committee and due diligence process. The hosts describe how the committee approves securities, reviews fund providers annually, benchmarks holdings, and monitors tracking error and factor exposures. They also discuss recent Canadian ETF innovation, including Avantis and Beimo products, and argue that most new ETF launches are slop, though a few tax-aware or systematic-active ideas may be genuinely useful.
Key takeaways
- The host says market timing fails because you must be right both on the way out and the way back in.
- The hosts say lump sum investing beat dollar-cost averaging about 65% of the time in their analysis.
- The host says extreme anxiety about re-entry may signal that the portfolio is too aggressive.
- The hosts describe PWL’s annual due diligence on approved securities, fund providers, and firm-wide holdings.
- The hosts say most new Canadian ETF launches are slop, but some tax-aware and systematic-active products may be worth considering.
Notable quotes
“you have to be right twice. You got to be right once on the way out, and you got to be right again on the way back in”
“lump sum investing is statistically superior to dollar cost averaging over time”
“if you're this worried about it, if if this is such an agonizing decision for you, maybe your portfolio is too aggressive”
“new ideas are usually going to be slop because ETF issuers want to sell whatever is hot at the moment”
How the episode opens
This is the Rational Reminder podcast, a weekly reality check on sensible investing and financial decision-making from three Canadians. We're hosted by me, Benjamin Felix, chief investment officer, Dan Bordalotti, portfolio manager, and Ben Wilson, a head of M&A at PWL Capital.
Welcome back to another AMA episode. trying to get through the backlog of questions here and uh we definitely have some good ones on the in the lineup today. — Yeah, these these episodes do really well. The last couple have been some of our best performing recent episodes. So, people seem to people seem to like them or at least they seem to watch them. Hopefully, they like them.
Yeah. And it always prompts new content on in the comments. People are asking more new questions to to bring up in future AMAs, which is kind of cool. — Yep. True. And and these questions tend to be uh very practically relevant as opposed to I think sometimes our our topics are maybe a little bit more theoretical.
Uh well, should we jump into them? — Let's do it. — Let's go.
All right. I can read the first one. This is from Morvich and they say, this is a really interesting question actually.
They all are. This one in particular is fun to talk through. Uh so they they say I mistakenly sold VEQT and took a 50% cash position last year concerned about a bubble during the interm.
I invested it in a money market fund. Now I have regrets and want to invest it back. Should I do a lump sum?
Should I do it monthly or quarterly installments? Or is the bubble concern real and I should keep it as cash or keep a cash percent? I am a 44 year old married person.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- market timing
- lump sum vs dollar cost averaging
- etf due diligence
- risk tolerance vs portfolio mismatch
- currency debasement and inflation
Companies and tickers mentioned
- BMO
- PWL Capital
- Bank of Montreal
Watch the episode
Watch “"I Sold 50% of My Portfolio. What Now?" (AMA 17) | Rational Reminder 418” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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The Rational Reminder Podcast, this episode and its artwork belong to Benjamin Felix, Cameron Passmore, and Dan Bortolotti. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
