Episode summary
Anthropic Gets Shut Down By the Government and the AI Story Gets More Complicated | The Weekly Wrap
The Real Eisman Playbook
· · Hosts: Steve Eisman
Summary
Steve Eisman argued that the biggest market story this week was not Iran or the Fed, but the shifting AI trade. He said the Trump administration’s move against Anthropic effectively shut down Fable 5 and Mythos 5, and he used that as evidence that the AI narrative is becoming more complicated and more politicized. He also said the sector’s economics are getting harder to ignore: AI capex keeps rising, but differentiation, pricing power, and returns on that spending remain unclear.
Eisman framed the bullish case around still-strong spending and Nvidia’s growth, but he spent most of the segment on the bear case. He argued that hyperscalers are becoming more capital intensive, with Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle all having to raise or plan major funding, and that token pricing is already pressuring customers. He warned that if usage slows or power constraints bite, the AI trade could unwind quickly, and suggested investors may prefer semis, power, and equipment names over the biggest AI platforms.
Outside AI, he noted a strong market reaction to the Iran headlines, a hawkish Fed meeting, a lively SpaceX IPO, private credit stress at BlackRock’s HPS fund, and a weak reaction to Fox’s Roku deal. In the mailbag, he favored traditional energy and healthcare over bonds or cash in an inflationary recession scenario, was skeptical of Netflix-style addiction lawsuits, and said Europe remains too slow-growing and under-tech-heavy to be a compelling hideout.
Key takeaways
- Eisman said Anthropic’s government setback effectively shuts down Fable 5 and Mythos 5, and he called it a warning sign for AI companies that fight regulators.
- He argued the AI bull case still rests on Nvidia and capex momentum, with Nvidia’s 1Q26 revenue growth at 85% and major firms still increasing spending.
- He said the bear case has strengthened because hyperscalers are raising equity, AI pricing is being cut, and customers may start using less as token costs rise.
- Eisman thinks investors bullish on AI may prefer semiconductors, power generation, and equipment suppliers over the biggest platform names.
- In the mailbag, he said traditional energy and healthcare look better than bonds, cash, or utilities in an inflationary recession backdrop.
- He said European stocks are generally unattractive because Europe is overregulated, slow-growing, and has far less tech exposure than the U.S.
Notable quotes
“The development of AI is packed packed with fascinating twists and turns every week”
“This effectively shuts down Fable 5 and Mythos 5 completely, which are Anthropic's latest and most sophisticated models”
“there is no sign that AI capex is weakening. Quite the opposite actually”
“This all goes to show that certain non-c capital-intensive large software companies have now become capital inensive hardware companies”
“The story is constantly evolving and sometimes not for the better”
How the episode opens
President Trump announced that a deal had been reached with Iran and would be signed Friday. As a result, futures soared and the market experienced a strong rally on Monday. Fox is buying Roku, the streaming company.
The market was not amused by this deal. There was some really bad news for Anthropic over the weekend. This effectively shuts down Fable 5 and Mythos 5 completely, which are Anthropic's latest and most sophisticated models and hurts the future of Enthropic.
Over the past few months, the negative arguments about AI have sharpened. So, let's explore them. Hi, this is Steve Eisman and this is another edition of the weekly rap.
This is a shortened week because of Junth. This rap is for the week ending Thursday, June 18th, but recorded Wednesday night, June 17th. On this week's rap, we will discuss the war in Iran, the SpaceX IPO, private credit news, bad news for anthropic, a summary of the bullcase and bare case for AI mailbags, and oh, by the way, a little bit about the Fed.
Before we get to the rap, on Premium Wednesday, June 24, we will post an interview with the management of Glass House Brands, a cannabis company. The reclassification by the Trump administration of medical cannabis from a schedule one to a schedule 3 drug will improve growth and earnings. I own the stock and on Wednesday, July 1st, I will share my long positions in my personal portfolio and how I think about managing my investments.
This is for educational purposes only and is not a recommendation. Now, let's go to the war on Iran. On Sunday, President Trump announced that a deal had been reached with Iran and would be signed Friday.
As a result, futures soared and the market experienced a strong rally on Monday.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- ai economics
- anthropic regulatory setback
- spacex ipo
- private credit stress
- inflation and european markets
Companies and tickers mentioned
- FOXA
- FOX
- SpaceX
- Anthropic
- Fiserv
- Fox Corporation
- Roku
Watch the episode
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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The Real Eisman Playbook, this episode and its artwork belong to Steve Eisman. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
