Episode summary
The Consumer Stocks To Own & Avoid with Evercore's Top Analysts | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 65
The Real Eisman Playbook
· · Hosts: Steve Eisman · Guests: Michael Binetti, David Palmer, Greg Melich
Summary
The analysts argued that the American consumer is still split into winners and losers, with the middle feeling the most pressure. Restaurants are seeing lower-income traffic drop out after years of menu price increases, fast food comps are weak, and casual dining has held up better because it raised prices less aggressively. In retail, the strongest businesses are either serving affluent shoppers well or offering clear value, while the middle of the market remains squeezed. That is why names like Ralph Lauren, TJ Maxx, and some off-price chains are holding up better than department stores and mid-market apparel brands.
They also said AI is early but already changing how companies operate, mainly through logistics, personalization, labor scheduling, and customer service. In restaurants, voice AI and agentic search could matter for how consumers discover brands, but the panelist said most shoppers still do not fully trust AI to buy for them yet.
The broader stock view was selective. The analysts were constructive on Starbucks, Yum! Brands, Brinker, Home Depot, Costco, Walmart, Hershey, and Mondelez, while sounding cautious on Chipotle, Wendy's, Olive Garden, Best Buy, Lowe's, Nike, and legacy food companies such as Campbell Soup and Kraft Heinz. Their core argument was that pricing, product relevance, and exposure to protein and wellness trends matter more than broad category labels.
Key takeaways
- Restaurants are seeing a clear split by income, with high-single-digit traffic declines among consumers under $100,000 and fast food still hurt by a lingering price shock.
- The retail winners are either high-end brands like Ralph Lauren or strong value players like TJ Maxx, while the middle remains weak for chains like Kohl's and Old Navy.
- AI is still early, but retailers and restaurants are using it for logistics, personalization, labor scheduling, and voice ordering, not yet full autonomous shopping.
- The panelist expects Starbucks earnings power to improve, while Chipotle is lower conviction because its recovery has not yet shown up in comps.
- Legacy food companies face a tough setup from GLP-1s, smaller portions, protein trends, and rising costs, while Hershey and Mondelez are preferred because cocoa relief should help margins.
Notable quotes
“the middle is limping. That's where the pressure's being felt. That's where and you're probably seeing in some of the the credit card delinquency data and stuff like that”
“The fact is that is that is unfortunately for fast food a problem just not of just the income levels, but you have to say well let's double click on that”
“We're coming out of COVID. Everyone saw the value of being fit and they're seeing other people on the drugs. Everyone's looking for smaller portions, even in restaurants”
“I would say that's more of just a you're looking at short-term dynamics there. With the brands that you mentioned, you got to connect to a whole new generation”
“it's all bad, basically”
How the episode opens
Hey, it's Steve Eisman and welcome to another episode of the Real Eisman Playbook. So, you know, for many, many months we've been talking about the health of the consumer, the K-shaped economy. We've talked to economists.
We've talked to Lakshmi Ganapathi. And I thought this would be a good opportunity to talk to some sell-side analysts who really cover the consumers companies in depth. And so, you're going to meet three analysts today.
Michael Binetti, they're all at Evercore, by the way. Michael Binetti who covers the department stores and specialty retail. David Palmer who covers the restaurants and the food companies like Kraft Heinz.
And Greg Melich who covers basically the big box retailers, Home Depots, Lowe's, Costco, Walmart, Target. And between the three of them, I think we're going to get a real picture of the consumer and we're going to dig down into the sectors. And we're going to dig down into individual companies so that you're going to see some stock picking, which companies are good and which companies are not so good.
I hope you enjoy the the interview and afterwards I'm going to come back with some closing thoughts. Hi, this is Steve Eisman and this is another episode of the Real Eisman Playbook. And today, we're going to do something that we probably should have done a long time ago, which is do a really deep dive into the health of the consumer and the companies that service the consumer.
And to do this, I really needed some reinforcements. So, you know, normally I just interview one analyst. Today, I'm going to interview three consumer analysts who span the gamut really of the entire consumer sector.
So, today we have Michael Binetti who covers department stores and specialty retail. Michael, say hello.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- health of the consumer
- ai impact on consumer companies
- glp-1 impact on food companies
- retail downturn and turnaround
- restaurant sector outlook
Companies and tickers mentioned
- EVR
- NKE
- CPB
- KHC
- RL
- SBUX
- CMG
- WEN
- YUM
- DRI
- BBY
- HD
- LOW
- WMT
- COST
- ORLY
- AZO
- Evercore
- Nike
- Campbell Soup Company
- The Kraft Heinz Company
- Ralph Lauren
- Starbucks
- Chipotle Mexican Grill
- Wendy's
- Taco Bell
- Olive Garden
- Best Buy
- The Home Depot
- Lowe's
- Walmart
- Costco
- O'Reilly Auto Parts
- AutoZone
Watch the episode
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
More from The Real Eisman Playbook
-
The Midterms Have Changed the AI Narrative: S&P Down 4.4%, Nasdaq Down 5.5% | The Weekly Wrap -
Why Young Americans Feel Locked Out with the Lemonade Stand Podcast | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 82 -
Anthropic’s Growth is Slowing: Is AI Capex Next? | The Weekly Wrap -
Inflation, The Deficit & Why the Dollar Stays King with Benn Steil | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 81 -
AI Narrative Switched, Debt Yields Spike | The Weekly Wrap -
Big Short Reunion w/ Danny Moses: Rising Rates, AI & Private Equity | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 80
The Real Eisman Playbook, this episode and its artwork belong to Steve Eisman. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
